According to publicly available data from China Customs, the average sales-to-production ratio of polyester filament sample enterprises on June 22 was only 39.5%, up 1.3 percentage points from the previous trading day. Behind this figure lies the persistent cautious purchasing attitude of downstream users and the almost frozen pace of spot market transactions. A 39.5% ratio means that over 60% of production capacity failed to convert into actual orders, with inventory pressure transmitting from the weaving sector upstream to chemical fiber enterprises.
Signals Behind the Sales Data
The sales data from 20 sample enterprises on that day showed extreme divergence: the highest reached 120%, while the lowest was 0%. More than half of the enterprises had a sales ratio below 40%, with two even recording zero transactions. This distribution is not accidental—it reflects a downstream procurement strategy that has fully shifted from 'replenishment on demand' to 'wait-and-see timing.'
From a pricing perspective, although quoted prices for major polyester filament varieties have not dropped significantly, hidden concessions and covert price cuts have been spreading among traders. Industry public information shows that the prices of polyester raw materials PTA and MEG have been fluctuating within a narrow range recently, providing limited cost support and insufficient safety cushion for polyester filament prices.
Inventory Pressure and Supply Chain Transmission
Low sales ratios directly push up social inventories of polyester filament. According to data from the Huaxianbang platform, as of June 22, equity inventories at mainstream polyester filament factories had climbed to 15-20 days, with some small and medium factories exceeding 25 days. High inventories mean increased capital occupation, forcing enterprises to alleviate pressure through production cuts or promotions.
Downstream weaving enterprises are also facing headwinds. The comprehensive operating rate of water-jet looms in the Jiangsu-Zhejiang region remained around 65%, down about 8 percentage points year-on-year. Terminal garment export orders have been weak due to overseas inflation and destocking cycles, leading weaving mills to adopt a 'buy only what is needed' approach to raw material procurement.
Regional and Category Differentiation Intensifies
From a regional perspective, major polyester filament production and sales areas such as Shengze, Changxing, and Xiaoshan show significant differences. In Shengze, due to proximity to the terminal fabric market, certain differentiated varieties (e.g., cationic yarn, sea-island yarn) still see some turnover, but conventional FDY and POY varieties have sluggish transactions. In Changxing, where water-jet looms are concentrated, the decline in demand for conventional polyester filament is more pronounced.
At the category level, fine denier yarn and functional yarn show better price resilience than coarse denier yarn. This is related to relatively stable demand in home textiles and outdoor apparel sectors, while orders for conventional garment fabrics continue to weaken.