Structural Pressures Behind Low Polyester Filament Sales

On June 24, the average sales-to-production ratio of polyester filament sample enterprises stood at 45.6%, up 11.4 percentage points from the previous trading day. Although the figure improved, it remains below the industry breakeven level, indicating that end demand has not yet seen a substantial recovery.

Signals Behind the Sales Data

The distribution of sales-to-production ratios among the 23 sample companies was highly uneven: only a few reached as high as 150%, while most clustered between 30% and 70%, with four companies reporting just 10%. This divergence suggests that price-cutting promotions only worked for firms with cost or channel advantages, while most factories still face inventory pressure. Historically, a ratio below 50% typically forces further price concessions to clear stock. However, upstream PTA and MEG prices remain relatively firm, squeezing the room for polyester filament price cuts and leaving factories in a dilemma between reducing prices to cut losses and maintaining margins.

Dual Pressure from Costs and Demand

Upstream polyester raw material prices are supported by volatile international crude oil prices, but downstream weaving mills are operating at low capacity, especially small and medium-sized ones with pessimistic outlooks. They adopt a just-in-time procurement strategy, showing little willingness to build bulk inventories. This mindset directly limits polyester filament sales volumes. Notably, late June marks the start of the traditional off-season for textiles, with limited order growth in printing, dyeing, and apparel. Even if factory promotions temporarily boost sales, sustainability is questionable. Once promotions end, the ratio may fall back below 40%.

Transmission Effects in Industrial Clusters

In chemical fiber clusters mainly in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces, factories in Xiaoshan, Tongxiang, and Shengze report that downstream weaving mills also have high greige fabric inventories. This means apparel brands' procurement pace has not accelerated, prolonging the inventory digestion cycle across the supply chain. For foreign trade companies, overseas market uncertainties further weaken demand. Europe and the U.S. show weaker-than-expected replenishment, while Southeast Asian textile capacity is diverting some orders. Both domestic and external demand pressures leave little fundamental driver for polyester filament sales improvement.

Practical Recommendations

For Buyers - Current polyester filament prices are at a cyclical low, but factories still have room to negotiate due to inventory pressure. Consider phased procurement to avoid large one-time stockpiles. - Monitor upstream PTA price movements; if PTA corrects, polyester filament will have more room to drop, presenting a better entry point. - Prioritize cooperation with companies whose sales-to-production ratio exceeds 80%, as they face less cash flow pressure and offer more stable supply.

For Foreign Trade Companies - For export orders involving polyester filament or fabrics, include price adjustment clauses in contracts to hedge against raw material price volatility. - Track changes in Southeast Asian import demand for polyester filament, as some countries are expanding their chemical fiber capacity, potentially affecting China's export share. - Use the current low domestic sales period to negotiate more flexible payment terms or extended credit periods with suppliers, easing your own cash flow burden.