On June 22, the average production-sales ratio of polyester filament yarn sample enterprises settled at 39.5%, a mere 1.3 percentage point increase from the previous trading day. Behind this figure lies a widespread 'watch but don't buy' mentality among downstream users, with spot trading sluggish and order conversion rates extremely low. When the industry average falls below 40%, it means more than half of the enterprises sold less than half of their output that day, and inventory pressure is quietly building up.
Signals from Divergent Production-Sales Data
A closer look at the individual sample data from that day reveals a clear pattern of uneven demand. Among the 19 sample points, only two achieved a production-sales ratio above 100%, at 120% and 70% respectively. In contrast, eight enterprises recorded ratios below 30%, including two with zero sales and another two with only 10%. The gap between top and bottom performers reflects the market's high selectivity regarding product specifications, quality, and brand reputation.
Notably, the proportion of enterprises with ratios between 40% and 60% is relatively small, with most concentrated in the 20% to 45% range. This 'two ends large, middle small' distribution indicates that the polyester filament yarn market is undergoing structural differentiation: a few companies maintain sales through differentiated products or stable customer bases, while the majority struggle with sluggish movement.
Industrial Logic Behind Cautious Sentiment
The cautious stance of downstream users is no accident. The chemical fiber industry chain is currently navigating a tug-of-war between costs and demand: upstream raw material prices fluctuate frequently, while the recovery of terminal textile and apparel orders remains insufficient, making weaving enterprises reluctant to stock up. As an intermediate product, the production-sales ratio of polyester filament yarn directly reflects downstream operating rates and restocking willingness.
From a timing perspective, late June typically falls in the transition period between the textile off-season and autumn stocking. However, this year's cautious sentiment is significantly stronger than in previous years, driven by two key factors: first, foreign trade orders are recovering slowly due to the pace of overseas inventory digestion; second, domestic consumer confidence in the market is yet to fully recover, leading brand owners to place orders more cautiously. When weaving factories themselves face unclear orders, they naturally refrain from large-scale purchases of polyester filament yarn.
Transmission Effects on the Industry Chain
Sustained low production-sales ratios put the greatest pressure on polyester filament yarn manufacturers. Extended inventory turnover days mean increased capital occupation, and some small and medium-sized producers may be forced to cut prices to destock, thereby compressing profit margins. Historical experience shows that when the industry average production-sales ratio remains below 50% for consecutive days, price wars often become inevitable.
For upstream raw material suppliers such as polyester chips, weak demand for polyester filament yarn transmits upward along the chain. Chip manufacturers face reduced orders and may simultaneously lower operating rates, thereby impacting demand for PTA and MEG. The prosperity of the entire chemical fiber chain is diminishing progressively from the terminal to the source.