When international crude oil prices briefly dipped below $70 per barrel on June 24, wiping out all gains since the outbreak of the Middle East crisis, a telling number emerged on the polyester supply chain: polyester filament yarn prices still remain nearly 1,000 yuan per ton higher than before the crisis. This thousand-yuan spread is not a simple cost-pass-through lag but a mirror reflecting deep-seated supply-demand mismatches in the current polyester chain.
The Inventory Dilemma Behind the Spread
Crude oil is the cost anchor at the top of the polyester chain. Public data shows that PTA and MEG futures have essentially returned to pre-crisis levels, theoretically removing cost support for polyester filament. Yet on June 24, polyester plants only cut filament prices by 50-150 yuan per ton—far less than the drop in feedstock costs. The problem lies in inventory. Industry data indicates POY factory inventory stands at 30 days, FDY at 35.7 days, and DTY at 41.8 days. These inventories were produced during high oil prices, with costs far above current spot levels. If polyester plants matched feedstock price declines, they would convert paper losses into real losses. Consequently, they have adopted a strategy of 'slow price cuts, slow sales.' Current capacity utilization for domestic direct-spun polyester filament is only 73.81%, a three-year low. Low operating rates help control new inventory growth but cannot quickly digest existing high-cost stocks.
Downstream 'No Buy Unless Necessary' Logic
In contrast to polyester plants' defensive stance, weaving mills are proactively waiting. For weavers, the current high cash flow of polyester filament implies significant room for future price declines. If they purchase raw materials for routine stock production rather than for confirmed orders, buying a month earlier could cost hundreds or even thousands of yuan more per ton, while the final product sells at the same price. This 'no buy unless necessary' mindset directly dampens market transaction activity. Downstream procurement has shifted from opportunistic stockpiling to just-in-time, ultra-cautious buying, further weakening polyester plants' sales pace.
Root Cause: Oversupply and Weak Demand
Zooming out, the current polyester chain deadlock is a micro-level reflection of a macro landscape characterized by oversupply and insufficient domestic demand. A telling signal is the delayed start of the summer sun-protection fabric season. Typically, June sees peak orders for sun-protection apparel fabrics, but unusually cool weather this year has suppressed end-consumer demand, directly blocking upstream order transmission. However, there are bright spots. With the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz shipping channel, global crude oil and commodity trade order is gradually restoring, and multiple overseas economies are accelerating recovery. This trend is expected to boost international textile consumption demand, bringing incremental export orders for domestic textile exporters. A moderate export recovery could partially offset weak domestic demand and ease downward pressure on the polyester filament market.
Short-Term Bargaining to Persist
Looking ahead, the pattern of weak supply-demand and high price spreads in the polyester chain is likely to continue for some time. Polyester plants, constrained by high-cost inventory, cannot significantly cut prices; weavers, holding the bargaining advantage, continue to wait for a better entry point. This upstream-downstream tug-of-war will dominate short-term market dynamics. For industry participants, understanding inventory structure, cost ranges, and order rhythms is more critical than simply watching oil price fluctuations.