39.5%—that was the average sales-to-production ratio on June 22 for sampled polyester filament yarn enterprises. This number means over 60% of that day's output remained unsold. Downstream users are cautious, spot transactions are scarce, and the chemical fiber chain is experiencing a cold transmission from production to demand.
Market Sentiment Behind the Data
The sales-to-production ratios among sample enterprises on that day ranged from 120% to 0%, showing severe divergence. Only a very few companies reached or exceeded 100%, while most struggled between 30% and 45%, with two companies reporting zero sales. This polarization indicates that demand is not entirely absent but is highly concentrated among a few suppliers with price advantages or product differentiation.
For buyers, the signal is clear: upstream inventory is accumulating, and room for price negotiation is expanding. For mills, however, low sales ratios mean increasing cash flow pressure, and the likelihood of production cuts or maintenance shutdowns is rising.
Structural Supply-Demand Imbalance
The current sluggishness in the chemical fiber market is not a short-term fluctuation but the result of multiple overlapping factors. On the supply side, polyester filament yarn capacity continues to expand, and industry operating rates remain high, leading to ample market supply. On the demand side, weaving enterprises downstream have insufficient orders, and the recovery of end-use apparel consumption has fallen short of expectations, creating a stalemate of "full production upstream, wait-and-see downstream."
This structural contradiction is reflected in the persistently low sales-to-production ratios. The 39.5% figure is not an isolated case—data from the past week shows average ratios fluctuating around 40%, failing to break through the 50% threshold. This means the market supply-demand balance has been broken, and the destocking cycle is not yet over.
Impact on Industrial Clusters and Foreign Trade
Textile clusters such as Keqiao and Shengze are major consumers of polyester filament yarn. The current low sales ratio is directly reflected in the operating rates of these clusters. According to publicly available industry data, the comprehensive operating rate of weaving machines in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has shown a slight decline since June, with some small and medium-sized weaving enterprises choosing to reduce production or take holidays due to insufficient orders.
The foreign trade side is also under pressure. Overseas demand for chemical fiber fabrics has slowed significantly due to global inflation and geopolitical factors. Export enterprises face a double squeeze: domestic raw material price fluctuations increase cost control difficulties, while overseas customers aggressively push for lower prices, compressing order profit margins.
Price Expectation Games and Strategic Adjustments
From the cost side, crude oil prices have been volatile recently, and the cost support for chemical fiber raw materials such as PTA and MEG is weak. Polyester filament yarn prices lack upward momentum and are likely to continue a weak consolidation in the short term. For buyers, this is not bad news—ample inventory and price pressure mean they can compare prices and negotiate more calmly.
For producers, however, the combination of low sales ratios and low prices is eroding profits. The risk of industry consolidation cannot be ignored: cash-strapped companies may be forced to cut prices to offload inventory, further depressing market prices and creating a vicious cycle.