The polyester filament market is experiencing a rare sales shock. On June 25, industry data showed that the average sales-to-output ratio among sampled enterprises plummeted to 29.5%, a dramatic drop of 16.1 percentage points from the previous day. Among the 18 firms that disclosed specific data, 15 recorded ratios below 40%, with two reporting zero sales. This means that more than 80% of sampled companies sold less than 40% of their daily output, with inventories visibly piling up.
The Trigger: Cost Collapse
The direct cause of this sales plunge is sustained weakness on the cost side. Prices of raw materials PTA and MEG have recently hit new lows, directly pulling down the theoretical cost floor of polyester filament. When cost support rapidly erodes, the first reaction of downstream weaving mills is not to buy the dip but to wait—because no one wants to be caught holding inventory that becomes more expensive tomorrow. This 'buy-the-rally, not the dip' psychology was amplified to the extreme on June 25.
Looking at the data distribution, the ratios show a classic 'long-tail exhaustion' pattern: the highest value was only 70%, the lowest was 0%, and the median hovered around 20%. No enterprise achieved a balanced ratio of 100%, and none reported overselling. The industry implication of these numbers is clear: regardless of factory size or product type—whether commodity or differentiated—all are equally stuck in sluggish sales.
Not a Fluctuation, but an Inventory Logic Reset
This sales downturn must be viewed in a broader industrial context. Over the past two years, the polyester filament market operated on a positive feedback loop: rising costs led to higher prices, which triggered panic buying, transferring inventory downstream and pushing prices even higher. Now the loop has reversed: falling costs lead to falling prices, causing downstream buyers to wait for further drops, resulting in inventory stagnation and additional price declines. The market has shifted from 'buy-the-rally and restock' mode to 'buy-as-needed' or even 'zero-inventory' mode.
This mode shift has profound implications. For polyester plants, a sales-to-output ratio persistently below 40% means a sharp slowdown in cash flow turnover, putting the liquidity of some small and medium enterprises under pressure. For weaving mills, while they may enjoy the short-term benefit of lower raw material costs, stagnant inventory will eventually suppress grey fabric prices, compressing their own processing margins.
Ripple Effects Across Industrial Clusters
Looking at regional distribution, factory inventory pressure is rising simultaneously in major polyester filament production areas such as Shengze, Changxing, and Xiaoshan. These regions are also home to weaving clusters, meaning that sluggish sales are creating an 'inventory dam' between upstream and downstream. Historically, when the sales ratio fell below 40%, factories would cut prices or offer promotions to stimulate sales. But in the current environment of falling cost expectations, price cuts are losing their effectiveness—customers believe that 'tomorrow will be even cheaper.'
Pricing Mechanism Under Reconstruction
A noteworthy industry signal is that when costs continue to decline and sales ratios remain low for an extended period, the pricing logic for polyester filament may shift from 'cost-plus' to 'supply-demand pricing.' This means that even if raw material prices stabilize, filament prices may not follow suit unless downstream demand genuinely recovers. The strategic implication for procurement is structural: the old approach of 'buy based on PTA futures' needs revision. Weaving mills must focus more on their own order books rather than on raw material futures charts.