On June 25, the average sales-to-production ratio of sampled polyester filament enterprises stood at only 29.5%, plummeting 16.1 percentage points from the previous trading day. This means that for every 100 tons of polyester filament produced, fewer than 30 tons were sold, with the rest turning into inventory. The collapse in feedstock costs was the final straw that shattered market confidence.
Cost Collapse and Sales Divergence
Polyester filament's direct raw materials are PTA and MEG, both influenced by international crude oil prices. Recent consecutive declines in crude oil have dragged down PTA spot prices, and MEG has not been immune. The sharp drop in raw material costs directly weakened downstream buyers' purchasing intentions—in a downward price channel, buyers prefer to postpone restocking rather than risk inventory depreciation from 'buy today, lose tomorrow.'
Among the 18 sample enterprises, six reported sales ratios of 0% or 10%, with the highest at only 70%. More than half of the firms recorded ratios below 30%, reflecting a widespread wait-and-see sentiment. While such a 'cost drop, sales cold, inventory rise' pattern has occurred before in the chemical fiber industry, a single-day contraction of this magnitude in late June is still rare.
Industry Transmission: Pressure Along the Entire Chain
Polyester filament is a core raw material for textile fabrics, widely used in apparel, home textiles, and industrial textiles. The sharp decline in the sales ratio means that upstream chemical fiber plants are rapidly accumulating inventory. Normally, plants would reduce output or cut prices to balance supply and demand. However, in a fast-declining cost environment, price cuts often fail to stimulate demand and instead reinforce the 'buy when prices rise, not when they fall' mentality.
For downstream weaving enterprises, raw material price uncertainty is disrupting order-taking rhythms. Fabric buyers typically lock in raw material costs based on final orders. When raw material prices fluctuate sharply, weaving mills tend to reduce stockpiles and adopt a 'buy-as-needed' short-order model. While this reduces inventory risk, it also narrows the sales window for chemical fiber plants, pushing up average inventory days across the industry.
From a regional perspective, major polyester filament producing areas such as Xiaoshan, Shaoxing, Tongxiang in Zhejiang, and Shengze in Jiangsu have seen slight reductions in plant operating rates. Some enterprises are scheduling maintenance ahead of the hot season to passively digest inventory. If the sales ratio fails to recover above 50% in the coming week, production cuts may expand further.
Supply-Demand Imbalance and Price Expectations
The current polyester filament market faces not just a cost problem but a more fundamental supply-demand imbalance. Domestic textile and apparel end-consumption growth is slowing, while external demand is affected by global trade uncertainties, with insufficient order recovery. Operating rates at downstream fabric mills and dyeing plants are generally lower than last year, weakening rigid demand for raw materials. The accelerated cost decline merely exposes this structural issue more starkly.
On the pricing front, ex-factory quotes for various polyester filament specifications (POY, FDY, DTY) have seen varying degrees of reduction. Some plants offer additional discounts for bulk purchases to accelerate cash flow, but with limited effect. The market generally expects that if crude oil prices cannot stabilize in the near term, polyester filament prices still have room to fall, with cost support logic temporarily invalidated.
It is worth noting that the sales ratio is a lagging indicator, reflecting past transactions. What truly matters are leading indicators—such as downstream weaving mills' raw material inquiry frequency and new order signing cycles. Current channel feedback suggests these leading indicators are also weak, implying that the low-sales environment may persist into early July.