On June 24, the average sales-to-production ratio of polyester filament sample enterprises stood at only 45.6%, up 11.4 percentage points from the previous trading day's close. Behind this figure lies a stark reality of sustained pressure in the chemical fiber industry: even as factories proactively cut prices to lure buyers, downstream weaving mills remain reluctant to purchase, with market transactions showing only a 'modest improvement'—far from the recovery threshold the industry had hoped for.
A Mirror of Supply-Demand Imbalance
Data from China Customs and the Huaxianbang platform together paint the current market picture. A 45.6% sales-to-production ratio means more than half of the day's output failed to translate into actual sales, with inventories accumulating at an accelerated pace. At the enterprise level, the distribution of daily sales data was highly uneven: the highest reached 150%, the lowest only 10%, with most companies falling in the 30%-60% range. This divergence indicates that only a few factories with cost advantages or product differentiation can attract orders, while the majority are trapped in a 'price cut—sluggish sales—further price cut' cycle.
On the cost side, polyester raw material prices have remained high and volatile recently, with fluctuations in PTA and MEG directly squeezing polyester filament production margins. When upstream costs cannot be effectively passed downstream, factories have to compress their own profit margins, further weakening their willingness and ability to sustain price reductions. Industry public data shows that the theoretical cash flow for polyester filament is nearing the breakeven line, with some small and medium-sized enterprises even reporting losses.
Fracture and Restructuring of the Supply Chain
The root cause of the low sales rate is weakening end-user demand. Textile and apparel export growth has slowed, and the domestic market is affected by volatile consumer confidence. Weaving mills have insufficient orders and generally adopt a just-in-time procurement strategy, with very low willingness to build inventory. The operating rates in major weaving clusters such as Shengze, Changxing, and Xiaoshan have fallen from over 70% at the beginning of the year to around 60%, with some small factories even suspending production intermittently. The 'buy on rising, not on falling' mentality is actually reinforced in a price-cut environment—buyers expect prices to fall further and therefore choose to wait and see.
A deeper issue is overcapacity. The polyester filament industry has experienced a rapid expansion in capacity over the past few years, with new capacity being released in a concentrated manner, while downstream demand growth has failed to keep pace. Even without considering seasonal fluctuations, the supply-demand gap is widening. This means that relying on price cuts to clear inventory has increasingly limited room, and the industry must seek more fundamental adjustment paths, such as voluntary production cuts, product upgrades, or export diversion.
Paths to Breakthrough and Market Signals
Historical experience suggests that a sales rate persistently below 50% usually indicates that the industry is about to enter an active destocking phase. The data from June 24 might be a key signal: if the rate fails to recover above 60% in the coming week, some factories may be forced to cut production or even halt for maintenance to alleviate inventory pressure. For upstream products like polyester chips, this will create negative feedback, further suppressing raw material prices.
Notably, the 150% sales rate for individual cases shows that differentiated products still have market space. Demand in niche segments such as functional fabrics and recycled polyester filament remains relatively stable, offering a structural transformation direction for the industry.