On June 25, the average sales-to-production ratio of polyester filament yarn sample enterprises was only 29.5%, a sharp drop of 16.1 percentage points from the previous trading day. This figure means that for every 100 tons of polyester filament yarn produced that day, less than 30 tons were purchased by downstream buyers. The severe collapse in raw material costs is dragging the entire polyester industry chain into a wait-and-see quagmire, with spot transactions freezing.
Cost Collapse: The Joint Decline of PTA and MEG
The direct trigger for the sudden drop in the sales rate is the rapid decline in upstream raw material prices. PTA and MEG, the core raw materials for polyester filament yarn, have been falling recently amid crude oil price fluctuations and a loose supply-demand balance. The collapse in costs has left polyester filament yarn factories without price support, creating a classic negative feedback loop: the more prices fall, the fewer buyers there are, and the fewer buyers, the more prices fall.
Looking at the specific sales data released that day, the distribution of sales rates among 18 sample companies was extremely scattered and generally low: the highest was only 70%, the lowest was 0%, and more than half of the companies had sales rates below 30%. Behind this 'fire and ice' contrast lies the mismatch between different factories' pricing strategies and downstream procurement rhythms. Some factories chose to reduce prices to destock, but with little effect; others simply held their inventory, waiting for the market to stabilize.
Demand Side: Weaving Operating Rates Decline, Terminal Orders Lack Momentum
The fundamental reason for the sales rate falling below 30% lies in the purchasing willingness of the downstream weaving sector, which has dropped to a low point for the year. Entering late June, the traditional off-season effect has further amplified. Operating rates of weaving enterprises in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions have generally declined, and grey fabric inventories are high, leading to demand for polyester filament yarn being limited to just-in-time replenishment, with speculative stockpiling almost disappearing.
More noteworthy is the weakness in terminal garment export orders. The destocking process in European and American markets is slower than expected, and the traffic dividend of cross-border e-commerce platforms has peaked, causing fabric buyers to remain generally pessimistic about the future. This pessimistic sentiment has been transmitted layer by layer along the chain of 'garments → fabrics → grey fabrics → polyester filament yarn', ultimately reflected in the sales data on June 25.
Inventory Pressure: Factory Stockpiling Accelerates, Cash Flow Faces Test
Sustained low sales rates are accelerating inventory accumulation at polyester filament yarn factories. According to industry public data, the inventory days for the three main varieties of polyester filament yarn (POY, FDY, DTY) have all climbed to near three-month highs. For small and medium-sized chemical fiber plants, the capital pressure from inventory accumulation is particularly prominent. If the sales rate cannot recover to above 50% in the coming week, some companies may be forced to take measures such as production cuts or shutdowns to alleviate cash flow burdens.
Historically, a polyester filament yarn sales rate below 30% for three consecutive days usually signals that the industry is about to enter an active destocking phase. At that point, price wars among factories may intensify, compressing product profit margins to below the breakeven point. Large leading companies, with their integrated industrial chain advantages, can still withstand this pressure, but the living space for small and medium-sized manufacturers will shrink significantly.