On June 22, the chemical fiber market reported an average sales-to-production ratio of only 39.5% for polyester filament yarn sample enterprises, up slightly by 1.3 percentage points from the previous day. This figure remains below the 40% threshold, indicating that more than 60% of production capacity has not been converted into actual sales.
Data Signals Behind the Sales-to-Production Ratio
Examining the distribution of individual sample enterprises' ratios reveals significant disparity: 120%, 20%, 70%, 40%, 45%, 0%, 60%, 40%, 45%, 30%, 0%, 30%, 40%, 10%, 10%, 30%, 40%, 20%, 20%, 40%. Two enterprises reported zero sales, while only one achieved 120%. The majority clustered between 10% and 45%. This distribution suggests a lack of broad-based demand support in the chemical fiber market. The standout performance of one enterprise likely reflects order concentration or customer structure differences rather than an industry-wide recovery signal.
The persistently low ratio directly points to insufficient operating rates in downstream weaving, dyeing, and finishing sectors. Order contraction in the end-use apparel and home textile markets is propagating upstream through the supply chain. As a core raw material for chemical fiber fabrics, polyester filament yarn's sales performance is often viewed as a leading indicator of industry health.
Downstream Procurement Turns Conservative
The cautious stance of end-users was clearly evident in the June 22 data. Limited spot transactions reflect downstream enterprises actively reducing raw material inventories, adopting a "just-in-time" purchasing strategy. Against an uncertain end-demand outlook, weaving mills prefer maintaining low inventory levels rather than large-scale stockpiling. This shift in procurement behavior directly pressures upstream polyester plants' production scheduling and cash flow.
Notably, price volatility risk in the chemical fiber market is exacerbating downstream wait-and-see sentiment. If raw material prices continue to decline, downstream enterprises may further delay purchases, creating a negative feedback loop of "the more prices fall, the less buyers purchase."
Regional Responses and Differences
Major polyester filament yarn production and sales regions, including Shengze, Changxing, and Xiaoshan, are all facing the challenge of slowing shipments. Some polyester plants have begun promotional or concessionary measures to stimulate sales, but with limited effect. In downstream weaving clusters such as Shaoxing and Nantong, operating rates have experienced slight declines, with small and medium-sized factories particularly reducing production or taking holidays due to insufficient orders.
In terms of product category, FDY and POY are performing slightly better than DTY, possibly due to relatively stable demand for differentiated products. Conventional-grade polyester filament yarn faces greater inventory pressure.
Impact on Buyers and Exporters
The sustained low sales-to-production ratio means the chemical fiber market will maintain a buyer's market in the short term. For downstream buyers, this represents both a window for price negotiation and a need to be wary of rebound risks after a sharp price decline. Exporters must monitor the recovery pace of overseas orders to avoid profit margin erosion on export contracts due to domestic raw material price fluctuations.