The chemical fiber market is experiencing a rare 'ice age.' On June 22, the average production-sales ratio of polyester filament yarn sample enterprises was only 39.5%, a slight increase of 1.3 percentage points from the previous day. This figure means that for every 100 tons of polyester filament yarn produced that day, less than 40 tons were purchased by downstream buyers, with the remaining 60 tons or more directly converted into inventory. More alarmingly, several sample companies reported a production-sales ratio of zero—indicating they didn't receive a single substantial order throughout the day.
Signals from Production-Sales Data
Public data reveals a clear divergence among sample enterprises: a few reported ratios of 120% or 70%, but the majority were concentrated in the low range of 20%-45%, with several reporting a dismal 0%. This pattern of 'slight heat at the top, widespread freeze at the bottom' suggests that while the market hasn't completely lost liquidity, downstream users are extremely uncertain about prices and future expectations, only making restocking purchases for immediate needs.
Polyester filament yarn is a key intermediate material in the textile supply chain, and its production-sales ratio directly reflects weaving enterprises' operating willingness and the transmission efficiency of end-user orders. A ratio of 39.5% is historically a typical 'weak market' signal, often accompanied by declining raw material prices or shrinking demand from end-use sectors like apparel and home textiles. The current situation leans more toward the latter—cost-side PTA and MEG have fluctuated but haven't collapsed, so the problem primarily lies on the demand side.
How Downstream Caution Impacts the Supply Chain
The phrase 'cautious wait-and-see' from downstream users reflects weavers' and traders' fear of inventory depreciation. Since 2025, the textile industry has experienced multiple rounds of raw material price volatility. Many small and medium-sized weaving mills were forced to restock at high prices, only to suffer severe losses when the market turned. This traumatic memory has made buyers reluctant to make purchases at current price levels, preferring to accept low operating rates or even shutdowns rather than bear new inventory risks.
This sentiment propagates in both directions. On one hand, polyester filament yarn factories face production-sales pressure and have to cut prices or offer discounts to stimulate sales, but with little effect. On the other hand, weaving mills, due to insufficient orders, are seeing their own product inventories accumulate, straining their cash flow. The entire chemical fiber-weaving chain is trapped in a negative cycle of 'the more they wait, the weaker it gets; the weaker it gets, the more they wait.'
From a regional industrial cluster perspective, the Jiangsu and Zhejiang areas—especially Shengze, Xiaoshan, and Shaoxing—are major consumers of polyester filament yarn. Operating rates at weaving enterprises in these regions have been declining over recent weeks, with some factories already implementing production cut plans. If the production-sales ratio fails to recover above 50% in the coming week, the scope of production cuts is likely to expand further.
Short-Term Market Outlook
Based on current data and industry feedback, the Texcircle Editorial Department believes that the polyester filament yarn market will likely maintain a weak consolidation trend over the next one to two weeks. Two key variables will determine the direction: first, whether upstream PTA prices can stabilize and rebound to provide cost support for polyester yarn; second, whether end-user textile and apparel export orders show signs of recovery before the traditional peak season of the third quarter.
Historical experience suggests that a production-sales ratio below 40% typically does not persist for more than three weeks, as factories will proactively cut production to match demand, thereby rebalancing supply and demand. However, the unique aspect of this adjustment is that downstream 'post-traumatic' sentiment is deeper than before. Even if prices fall slightly, it will be difficult to immediately trigger large-scale purchases.