On June 25, the polyester filament yarn industry posted a surprising sales-to-production ratio: the average for sampled enterprises stood at just 29.5%, a sharp drop of 16.1 percentage points from the previous day's closing data. This means that for every 100 tons of polyester filament yarn produced that day, less than 30 tons were purchased by downstream buyers, with the rest turning into inventory.
Cost Collapse is the Main Cause, Trading Sentiment Completely Suppressed
The sharp decline in the sales ratio is not due to a sudden disappearance of demand, but rather to violent fluctuations in raw material costs that have put the entire market into a wait-and-see mode. Recent significant declines in upstream raw material prices have directly lowered spot price expectations for polyester filament yarn. For weaving mills, postponing purchases and waiting for lower prices is a rational risk-averse behavior during a raw material price downtrend.
Looking at the specific sales data of sample enterprises, the distribution is highly uneven: some companies reported a sales ratio of 70%, while others recorded zero. This divergence reflects the differing risk-resistance capabilities of enterprises with different scales and customer structures—large factories with long-term contract orders can still maintain a certain volume of shipments, while small and medium-sized enterprises relying on spot transactions are almost at a standstill.
Industrial Cluster Reaction: Weaving Mills' Inventory Cycle is Lengthening
This plunge in the sales ratio is not an isolated event. From the perspective of industrial chain transmission logic, polyester filament yarn is a core raw material for weaving, and its sales situation directly reflects downstream operating rates and restocking willingness. Currently, weaving mills in the Jiangsu-Zhejiang region generally adopt a 'buy-as-needed' strategy, compressing raw material inventory days to extremely low levels.
More notably, the decline in costs has not effectively stimulated a volume increase in end-order releases. In theory, lower raw material prices should benefit weaving mills' profit margins, but in practice, end-brand apparel companies and foreign trade buyers are also adopting a wait-and-see approach, leading to delays in fabric order placements. Once this negative feedback loop of 'costs fall—buyers wait—orders delay' is formed, the destocking pressure on polyester filament yarn enterprises will continue to intensify.
Practical Implications for Buyers and Foreign Trade Companies
In the current market environment, different types of enterprises need to adopt differentiated strategies.
For Buyers - Adopt a wait-and-see approach in the short term, but set a price range: Raw material costs have already entered a relatively low range; if further declines are limited, consider phased purchases at key support levels to avoid missing a rebound. - Focus on product differentiation: Different specifications of polyester filament yarn (e.g., POY, FDY, DTY) have varying inventory and sales conditions; prioritize purchasing varieties with high inventory and greater price elasticity. - Utilize basis pricing tools: During periods of high futures market volatility, lock in processing margins by signing basis contracts with upstream suppliers to reduce spot price fluctuation risks.
For Foreign Trade Companies - Consider dual volatility of exchange rates and raw materials in export quotations: The recent trend of the RMB exchange rate has moved in sync with polyester filament yarn prices; foreign trade contracts can include price adjustment clauses or shorten the validity period of quotations. - Monitor changes in Southeast Asian weaving capacity: Demand for Chinese polyester filament yarn from countries like Vietnam and Bangladesh is still growing, but local mills are also watching raw material trends; export companies should proactively offer forward price-locking services to secure orders. - Leverage bonded warehouse storage functions: Stock up at low prices through bonded warehouses to avoid tariff costs while enabling quick response to immediate needs of overseas clients.
This plunge in the sales ratio to below 30% is the strongest market signal for the polyester filament yarn industry this year. It reminds all participants that in a cost-driven market, simple price gaming is no longer sustainable; the industry chain needs to establish more flexible pricing and inventory management mechanisms.