On June 25, a cold signal emerged from the polyester filament yarn market: the average sales-to-production ratio of sample enterprises was only 29.5%, down 16.1 percentage points from the previous trading day. Against the backdrop of persistent cost-side declines, this figure indicates that downstream weaving companies did not take the opportunity to bargain-hunt and replenish inventory, but instead opted for a more restrained wait-and-see stance.
The Cliff-Like Drop: Decoding Market Sentiment from Data
Public data shows that among the 18 sample enterprises tracked, the sales-to-production ratio distribution was extremely fragmented: the highest was 70%, the lowest was 0%, and most companies were concentrated in the 10% to 40% range. Specifically, one company each recorded 70% and 60%, three at 40%, two at 30%, five at 20%, two at 10%, and two companies recorded 0% on that day. This extreme divergence indicates that even under the same raw material cost environment, the sales strategies and customer stickiness of different companies have significantly diverged.
More noteworthy is the magnitude of the decline. A single-day drop of 16.1 percentage points is rare in the polyester filament yarn market over the past three months, reflecting a sharp shift in market sentiment from moderate wait-and-see at the beginning of the week to a general freeze in purchasing.
Cost Transmission Failure: A Negative Feedback Loop is Forming
Industry public data shows that upstream PTA and MEG prices have both experienced varying degrees of correction recently, theoretically creating room for polyester filament yarn to lower prices and stimulate downstream procurement. However, the actual result is the opposite—the greater the cost decline, the less downstream wants to buy.
This 'the more it falls, the more we wait' mentality is driven by two logics: First, weaving companies themselves are not seeing robust orders; with gray fabric inventory pressure, raw material procurement is based on rigid demand, lacking the motivation for active stockpiling. Second, the continuous decline in costs reinforces market expectations of 'prices will go even lower,' making buyers prefer to risk short-term shortages rather than catch a falling knife.
When cost declines and sales declines form a negative feedback loop, chemical fiber factories face a dilemma: if they follow raw material prices down to promote sales, they may further compress profits or even incur losses; if they do not cut prices, inventory pressure accumulates rapidly.
Industry Impact: The Transmission Chain from Filament to Fabric
The sharp fluctuation in the polyester filament yarn sales-to-production ratio will not stop at the chemical fiber factory level. As a key raw material for fabric production, weakening price expectations for polyester filament yarn will directly transmit to the gray fabric and finished fabric segments.
- For weaving mills: Lower raw material procurement costs should be positive, but if end-use garment orders do not recover simultaneously, cost reductions will only translate into competitive price cuts for gray fabric, squeezing the weaving mill's own processing margins.
- For fabric traders: In the current environment, a 'fast in, fast out' strategy is better than 'hoarding for price increases'; inventory turnover speed is more important than gross margin.
- For dyeing and finishing mills: If gray fabric intake decreases due to weaving mill production cuts, it will directly reflect in operating rates. It is expected that order intake may slow down in the next 1-2 weeks.