Industry data released on June 24 poured cold water on the chemical fiber market: the average sales-to-production ratio for polyester filament yarn among sample enterprises stood at only 45.6%. Even though this figure rose 11.4 percentage points from the previous trading day's close, it remains below the breakeven line. More notably, the ratio within the sample enterprises ranged from 10% to 150%, a degree of divergence far beyond normal. This set of data reveals a fundamental judgment: demand in the chemical fiber market has not truly recovered, and price promotions by some mills are merely reallocating limited orders rather than creating incremental demand.
Structural Fragmentation in Sales Ratios
The dispersion of sales-to-production data is a key indicator of market health. On June 24, among the 23 sample enterprises, only five had ratios exceeding 70%, while the remaining 18 were all below 60%, with seven even falling under 30%. This 'two peaks, hollow middle' distribution indicates that downstream weaving mills are highly selective in their purchasing, only responding to specific specifications and price points of polyester filament yarn.
Price promotions did have a local effect—some mills saw their ratios spike to 150%, but this is a classic case of 'trading volume for price.' For buyers, this sends a dangerous signal: inventory pressure is shifting from downstream to upstream, and the bargaining power of chemical fiber mills is weakening. If this trend persists, polyester filament yarn prices will face further downside.
Chain Reactions in Regional Industrial Belts
The low sales ratio of polyester filament yarn hits hardest in textile clusters like Keqiao and Shengze. These regions host a large number of weaving mills, the primary consumers of polyester filament yarn. A current ratio below 50% means that mills are slowing their raw material inventory consumption and are reluctant to replenish.
Looking at the chain transmission, weak orders at the weaving end have persisted for weeks, shifting their procurement strategy from 'replenishing as needed' to 'buying as used.' Once this mentality solidifies, the inventory turnover days for chemical fiber mills will lengthen, increasing capital occupation costs. More critically, if weaving mills generally expect prices to fall further, they will compress procurement volumes even more, creating a negative cycle of 'falling prices, falling demand.'
Cost Side vs. Price Expectations
The cost side for chemical fiber products has been relatively stable recently, with PTA and MEG prices not experiencing sharp fluctuations. This means the current price decline in polyester filament yarn is not due to cost collapse but purely to demand-side pressure. From industry experience, this combination of 'stable costs, falling prices' typically signals compressed profit margins, with small and medium-sized chemical fiber mills feeling the cash flow pinch first.
For foreign trade companies, the current downward trend in chemical fiber prices may bring short-term benefits—lower raw material costs help improve the price competitiveness of export products. However, caution is needed: if domestic demand continues to weaken, mills may be forced to cut production, and supply contraction could eventually push prices higher. Therefore, foreign trade firms should closely monitor operating rate data rather than just spot prices.