Crude oil has fully surrendered its geopolitical premium, but polyester filament remains stubbornly elevated. On June 24, WTI crude futures briefly broke below $70, returning to levels seen before the escalation in the Middle East. Yet polyester filament yarn prices still stand nearly 1,000 yuan per ton higher than before the conflict. This price gap has become the most glaring fault line in the polyester supply chain.
Background
The crude oil crash was sharp and decisive. After dipping below $70 on June 24, WTI recovered slightly on June 25 due to renewed Middle East tensions, but fell back to around $70 on June 26. This means crude has fully erased all geopolitical premiums built up since early 2026. Polyester filament, however, has not followed suit. According to industry data, current polyester filament prices remain nearly 1,000 yuan per ton above pre-crisis levels.
Meanwhile, PTA and ethylene glycol futures have essentially returned to their pre-crisis levels. This means the theoretical cash flow for polyester filament is now extremely generous—polyester plants are sitting on historically high profit margins based on raw material costs. But these paper profits have not translated into actual price cuts. Polyester mills have only reduced prices by 50-150 yuan per ton, far less than what weavers expect.
Industry Impact
Behind this thousand-yuan gap lie two completely different cost logics. For polyester plants, while current cash flow looks healthy, the cost of existing inventory is anything but. According to Longzhong data, POY factory inventory stands at 30 days, FDY at 35.7 days, and DTY at 41.8 days. These inventories were produced when oil prices were high. Cutting prices now would turn paper losses into real ones. With capacity utilization at only 73.81%, polyester mills have no urgency to offload stock, so they choose to reduce prices slowly.
For weavers, the situation is reversed. High cash flow for polyester filament signals significant room for future price drops. If they don't have urgent orders, buying now could mean losing hundreds or even thousands of yuan per ton in raw material costs within a month, while finished product prices may not rise accordingly. As a result, weavers have adopted a "buy only if necessary" stance, leading to shrinking market transactions.
The root cause of this divergence is weak supply-demand dynamics. Domestic demand is the core pain point—unseasonably cool weather has delayed the expected sun-protective clothing season, and end-user garment orders remain sluggish. However, external conditions are improving. With the Strait of Hormuz shipping channel fully reopened, global crude and commodity trade is normalizing. Multiple overseas economies are accelerating their recovery, which could boost international textile demand. Export orders may partially offset domestic weakness and provide some support to polyester filament prices.