45.6%—that was the average sales-to-production ratio of polyester filament yarn sample enterprises on June 24. Although up 11.4 percentage points from the previous trading day, the figure is still far below the industry-recognized safety line of 80%. More notably, the dispersion of sales-to-production ratios among sample enterprises was extremely high, ranging from 10% to 150%, reflecting significant internal market divergence.
De-stocking Becomes the Main Theme
The low sales-to-production ratio directly forced upstream factories to adjust strategies. On June 24, some polyester filament yarn factories launched price promotions, attempting to exchange price elasticity for cash flow. Judging from the sales-to-production data of sample enterprises that day, about half of the enterprises had ratios of 30% or below, while a few achieved 80% or even 150%. This "ice and fire" situation indicates that price cuts are not universally effective, only working for specific specifications.
For factories, the current challenge is not only insufficient orders but also continuously accumulating inventory pressure. As an intermediate link in the chemical fiber industry chain, the inventory level of polyester filament yarn directly reflects the supply-demand game between upstream and downstream. When the sales-to-production ratio remains below 60% for consecutive days, it means that production output far exceeds downstream digestion capacity, leading to passive inventory accumulation and rising capital occupation costs.
Weak Downstream Demand Is the Root Drag
Behind the low sales-to-production ratio of polyester filament yarn lies a substantial contraction in terminal textile and apparel demand. From the industry transmission chain, the operating rate of weaving enterprises has loosened, with some small and medium-sized weaving factories proactively reducing production or shutting down due to insufficient orders. This directly reduces procurement of polyester filament yarn.
The trading link is also under pressure. Under the expectation of price declines, intermediaries tend to reduce inventory rather than hoard goods, further compressing market liquidity. Data shows that on June 24, a high proportion of sample enterprises had sales-to-production ratios below 30%, and these enterprises are likely dominated by traders, whose cautious attitude amplifies the sales pressure on upstream factories.
Price Expectations and Procurement Strategy Adjustments
The current chemical fiber market is in a typical "buyer's market" phase. Although factory price promotions can stimulate some restocking demand in the short term, they are unlikely to reverse the overall weak pattern. Historical experience suggests that when the sales-to-production ratio remains below 50%, the price downturn cycle usually lasts at least 2-4 weeks.
For downstream buyers, the current moment is not a good opportunity for large-scale stockpiling. It is recommended to adopt a "procure on demand, small batch and high frequency" strategy, using factory promotion windows to lock in short-term volumes and avoiding inventory depreciation due to further price declines. At the same time, attention should be paid to the impact of raw material price fluctuations on end-product quotes, and price adjustment mechanisms should be communicated with customers in a timely manner.
Dual Challenges for Foreign Trade Enterprises: Exchange Rates and Competition
Foreign trade enterprises face more complex challenges. On one hand, RMB exchange rate fluctuations directly affect the price competitiveness of export products; on the other hand, the continuous expansion of textile capacity in Southeast Asia, such as Vietnam and Bangladesh, is diverting the traditional market share of Chinese chemical fiber products.
Under the pressure of polyester filament yarn prices, foreign trade enterprises need to balance "securing orders" and "protecting profits." In the short term, they can leverage the RMB depreciation window to win more export orders; in the medium to long term, they need to enhance bargaining power through product differentiation (such as functional polyester filament yarn) and escape the quagmire of low-price competition.