The thermometer of the polyester filament yarn market is pointing to a dangerous low zone. According to publicly available industry data from June 22, the average sales-to-output ratio of sample enterprises stood at only 39.5%, a meager 1.3 percentage point improvement from the previous day. This means that for every 100 tons of polyester filament produced that day, fewer than 40 tons were absorbed by the market. More alarmingly, this figure is not a one-day fluctuation but a signal that downstream users have collectively paused their purchases.
In the chemical fiber supply chain, the sales-to-output ratio is a core indicator of supply-demand matching efficiency. A ratio of 60%-80% is generally considered healthy, while anything below 50% signals accelerating inventory accumulation. The 39.5% figure is approaching the lowest range seen in the past two years. It reflects not just a single company's sales difficulty but a deterioration of liquidity across the entire distribution channel.
Production-Sales Structure: Extreme Divergence
Looking at the detailed data from 20 sample enterprises disclosed that day, the market is not uniformly sluggish. The highest ratio among them reached 120%, while the lowest two were both 0%. Such extreme divergence is uncommon in the industry. A 120% ratio typically indicates a company received a large order or executed a previous contract, while 0% suggests some factories saw virtually no new orders that day.
Further analysis shows that only 4 enterprises, or 20% of the sample, had a ratio above 50%. In contrast, 11 enterprises, or 55%, recorded ratios below 30%. This “long-tail slump” structure indicates weak overall market confidence, with most companies facing the risk of order gaps. For buyers, this means bargaining power is increasing, but they must also monitor suppliers' inventory and cash flow conditions.
Regional and Product Transmission: A Chain Reaction
The sluggish sales of polyester filament first impact upstream raw materials. PTA and MEG, the direct feedstocks, are seeing their price support weaken. Since June, PTA spot prices have already corrected slightly, while MEG port inventories continue to accumulate, further dampening market sentiment. Following the supply chain logic, if operating rates of downstream weaving and texturing mills continue to decline, raw material procurement will be forced into a destocking mode.
Regionally, the Jiangsu-Zhejiang area, as the main production and consumption hub for polyester filament, makes the current data particularly relevant. Most sample enterprises are concentrated here, and a ratio below 40% suggests that local weaving clusters are not receiving sufficient orders. In previous years, this period usually sees a procurement peak driven by summer fabric stocking, but the pace is notably delayed this year. This is influenced both by slowing growth in end-apparel retail sales and by foreign trade orders disrupted by exchange rate fluctuations and geopolitical factors.
Cost and Price: Margins Squeezed from Both Sides
In the cost structure of polyester filament enterprises, raw materials account for over 80%. When the sales-to-output ratio declines, companies often have to cut prices to generate cash, but if raw material prices do not fall in tandem, profit margins are quickly compressed. The current situation fits this pattern: PTA prices have corrected but only modestly, while quotes for POY, FDY, and DTY have already softened. Industry data show that POY prices for some specifications have dropped by 100-200 yuan per ton from the beginning of the month, yet downstream buyers remain unresponsive.
What does this “can't sell even at lower prices” situation mean for factories? It means rising financial costs for inventory, and it means operating rates may have to be cut. If large-scale production cuts occur, demand for upstream raw materials will shrink further, creating a negative feedback loop. For traders, holding inventory is currently risky; a fast turnaround strategy is more prudent.