39.5% — that was the average production-sales rate for polyester filament yarn sample enterprises on June 22. Even though it edged up 1.3 percentage points from the previous day, this figure remains well below the industry-recognized 'freezing point' of 50%. When the production-sales rate lingers under 40% for multiple days, it signals that inventory is piling up rapidly while downstream users have virtually hit pause.
What the Numbers Reveal
According to publicly available data from the National Bureau of Statistics and industry sources, the chemical fiber market remained under pressure through mid-to-late June. On June 22 specifically, sample enterprises reported production-sales rates ranging from 0% to 120%, but after excluding outliers, the median was only about 30%. More strikingly, over one-third of the enterprises recorded zero sales for the day — meaning no new orders were placed at all. This is not an isolated struggle but a collective chill across the entire sector.
Polyester filament yarn, a core raw material for the textile industry, directly reflects the operating willingness of the weaving segment. Currently, the comprehensive loom operating rate in the Jiangsu-Zhejiang region has dropped from 75% in May to below 65%. Small and medium-sized weaving mills in clusters like Shengze, Changxing, and Xiaoshan are generally adopting strategies of 'reducing loads and destocking.' The inventory pressure at upstream polyester plants is now feeding back into the PTA and MEG supply chains, creating a chain of negative feedback loops.
Why Downstream Has Gone Silent
The caution among buyers is not without reason. At the terminal end, apparel export orders have entered a traditional off-season, with restocking by European and American markets slowing noticeably. Domestically, the '618' shopping festival’s boost to home textiles and apparel fell far short of expectations, leaving brand owners with slow-moving inventory. More critically, polyester filament yarn prices have dropped by approximately 300-400 yuan per ton since late May, reinforcing a 'buy on the rise, not on the fall' mentality among downstream buyers. They prefer to pay spot freight costs and purchase on a need-to-use basis rather than risk holding depreciating stock.
This 'waiting for a lower price' attitude is clearly reflected in the data: despite the polyester plants rolling out promotions, preferential settlements, and other incentives, the production-sales rate has consistently failed to break through the 50% threshold. Industry analysts point out that market confidence is unlikely to recover until there is a tangible uptick in terminal orders or upstream producers voluntarily cut output to rebalance supply and demand.
Regional Disparities in Industrial Clusters
The response varies significantly across different industrial clusters. Dyeing and printing factories in Shaoxing Keqiao report that the volume of incoming grey fabric has dropped by about 15% month-on-month, with some mills already starting rotating shifts. In contrast, the Nantong home textile cluster sees relatively stable orders, but enterprises are mostly consuming their existing stockpiles and are extremely cautious about purchasing new raw materials. The Guangdong knitwear market is even colder, with circular knitting machine operating rates below 50%, and traders generally suspending large-lot transactions.
Looking at profit distribution along the supply chain, losses are currently concentrated in the polyester segment. The cash flow margin for polyester filament yarn has been squeezed to near breakeven. If the production-sales rate remains persistently low, there is a high probability of more extensive production cuts and maintenance shutdowns between late June and early July. This could further pressure PTA prices, creating a vicious cycle: feedstock prices fall, filament yarn prices drop, and buyers become even more reluctant to purchase.
Price Outlook and Entry Points
In the short term, polyester filament yarn prices still face downward pressure. However, two potential turning points deserve attention: first, around mid-July, some weaving mills may begin stockpiling for autumn/winter orders; second, if polyester industry-wide production cuts intensify, supply-side contraction could halt the price decline earlier. For buyers, now is not the time to bottom-fish, but they should monitor the weaving operating rate and polyester plant inventory days (currently about 20-25 days) as entry signals.