Polyester Filament Spread with Crude Oil Widens to 1,000 Yuan, Industry Chain Enters Critical Game Phase

International crude oil prices have quietly fallen back to levels before the recent Middle East tensions, yet polyester filament yarn prices remain nearly 1,000 yuan per ton higher. This divergence reflects deep supply-demand gaming across the industry chain. On June 24, WTI crude oil futures briefly fell below $70/barrel, erasing the geopolitical premium. Although a slight rebound occurred on June 25 due to renewed tensions, prices hovered around $70 again on June 26. Meanwhile, polyester filament yarn prices are still about 1,000 yuan/ton above pre-crisis levels.

The Divergence Between Oil and Polyester From raw materials perspective, PTA and MEG futures have essentially returned to their starting points, implying substantial cash margins for polyester filament. However, polyester plants have not followed crude oil's downward trend, only offering minor price reductions of 50-150 yuan/ton. This 'oil down, polyester not down' pattern is reshaping profit distribution along the chain.

The High Cash Flow vs. High Inventory Dilemma Polyester plants face a paradox: paper cash flows look attractive, but actual inventory costs are high. Industry data shows POY factory inventory at 30 days, FDY at 35.7 days, and DTY at 41.8 days. These inventories were produced during high oil prices, so deep price cuts would turn paper losses into real ones. Consequently, plants choose a 'slow reduction, slow sales' strategy. With capacity utilization at only 73.81% (a three-year low), plants face limited pressure to offload stock, making price maintenance a rational choice.

Downstream Weavers' Wait-and-See Stance For weaving mills, high polyester cash margins signal potential future price declines. Adopting a 'buy only for confirmed orders' approach, mills delay purchases unless immediate delivery is needed. This wait-and-see sentiment further suppresses polyester demand. Weak supply-demand dynamics and insufficient domestic consumption are core issues. Summer categories like sun-protective clothing have been delayed due to cooler weather, failing to stimulate demand.

Export Recovery as a Potential Game-Changer Despite weak domestic demand, overseas markets show positive signals. With full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz shipping channel, global crude oil and commodity trade order is gradually restoring. Faster economic recovery in multiple overseas economies is expected to boost international textile consumption demand, supporting China's textile exports. Incremental export orders could partially offset domestic weakness, alleviating downward pressure on the polyester filament market. If overseas demand recovers as expected, the supply-demand balance may improve in the second half of the year.

Practical Recommendations

For Buyers - Current polyester prices are high; recommend ordering only for confirmed needs to avoid price correction risks. - Monitor polyester plant production cuts and inventory changes closely; rising inventory pressure may trigger faster price declines. - Prioritize POY procurement (lower inventory); FDY and DTY have higher inventory, offering potentially greater bargaining room.

For Exporters - Track Middle East developments and Strait of Hormuz shipping recovery, as they will transmit to crude oil and chemical fiber costs. - Overseas economic recovery may boost orders; suggest locking forward order prices with downstream clients early. - If polyester prices remain elevated, consider including raw material price fluctuation clauses in export quotations to hedge cost volatility.