On June 24, the latest production-sales data showed that the average sales rate of polyester filament sample enterprises was only 45.6%. Although this figure rose 11.4 percentage points from the previous trading day's close, the divergence within the industry has become obvious: among the 22 sample enterprises, only three had sales rates reaching or exceeding 70%, while more than half were below 40%, with the lowest at just 10% to 30%.
What does this data imply? For the polyester chain, a 45.6% sales rate is far below the industry's recognized 70% breakeven line. In other words, most polyester filament producers are shipping goods at a pace severely lagging behind capacity release, with inventories piling up visibly. This is not a short-term fluctuation but a direct reflection of persistently weak end-demand since Q2.
Inventory Pressure and Price Game
Looking at the distribution structure of sales data, the market has shown clear polarization. A few enterprises achieved temporary inventory reduction through price cuts—for example, the two factories with sales rates of 150% and 80% offered discounts of 100-200 yuan per ton. However, this price-cutting strategy has not triggered industry-wide follow-up, with most enterprises choosing to wait and bear inventory pressure rather than join a price war.
Behind this game mentality lies the dependence of chemical fiber firms on cost-side support. Upstream PTA and MEG prices have recently maintained narrow fluctuations, providing no clear room for polyester filament price drops. If terminal orders fail to recover soon, price cuts may evolve from individual firms' self-rescue into an industry-wide stampede. For buyers, this could be a window for low-cost stockpiling; for factories, it means further compression of profit margins.
Downstream Transmission and Regional Industrial Belt Reactions
The direct cause of low sales rates is insufficient operating rates in downstream weaving. Taking major production areas like Shengze, Changxing, and Xiaoshan as examples, the average operating rate of water-jet looms has fallen from 85% at the beginning of the year to below 70% since June, with some small and medium enterprises even halting production temporarily due to lack of orders. The recovery of foreign trade orders for finished garments has been slower than expected due to the overseas destocking cycle.
It is worth noting that demand in the home textiles and industrial textiles sectors is relatively stable, but their share of polyester filament consumption is limited, making it difficult to offset the impact of declining orders for garment fabrics. This means the weakness in the polyester filament market is not comprehensive but structural: POY and FDY varieties used for garment fabrics are under the most pressure, while varieties for industrial yarns remain relatively firm.
Short-term Outlook and Operational Strategies
Looking ahead to the next two weeks, the industry needs to monitor three key variables: first, the trend of polyester raw material prices—if PTA drops significantly, room for polyester filament price cuts will open, potentially triggering a pulse-like recovery in sales rates; second, the pace of recovery in terminal orders—July is usually the start of sampling for autumn/winter fabrics, and if orders are released as expected, inventory pressure may ease; third, the extent of industry self-discipline production cuts—some large factories have already planned a one-week maintenance in early July, which will alleviate supply surplus to some extent.