On June 24, a notable signal emerged in the chemical fiber market: the average sales-to-production (S/P) ratio of sampled polyester filament yarn enterprises rose to 45.6% from 34.2% the previous trading day, an increase of 11.4 percentage points. This data comes from industry-wide public statistics covering multiple major producers.
At first glance, this suggests a market recovery. However, a deeper look reveals that the rebound was driven by short-term price promotions, not fundamental demand improvement. Some factories cut prices on that day, leading to moderate improvements in spot transactions. More critically, the S/P ratios among sampled enterprises showed extreme divergence: from a high of 150% to a low of 10%. This means only a minority of factories benefited from the promotions, while most still face inventory pressure.
Industry Background
The chemical fiber industry in late Q2 2026 faces multiple pressures. Upstream raw material costs are volatile, downstream textile and apparel orders remain weak, and new capacity continues to come online, exacerbating the oversupply situation in the polyester filament yarn market. In the previous week, the industry-wide average S/P ratio lingered between 30% and 40%, and inventory days climbed.
The June 24 price cuts were essentially an industry-wide test of 'trading volume for price.' The results show that price cuts can unlock some rigid demand and speculative stockpiling, but the effect is uneven. The 150% ratio likely came from a bulk order at a large enterprise, while the 10% ratio indicates many small and medium-sized enterprises are either waiting or unable to replenish stocks.
This divergence also reflects the true state of downstream demand: terminal orders in apparel and home textiles have not shown significant improvement, weaving mill operating rates remain low, and procurement of polyester filament yarn is limited to small, just-in-time orders, lacking sustained momentum.
Industry Impact
For chemical fiber producers, this round of promotions reveals the weakening of industry pricing power. In an oversupplied market, price cuts by one producer easily trigger a chain reaction, compressing margins across the industry. In the same period of 2025, the average processing spread for polyester filament yarn was around 800 yuan per ton; it has now narrowed to below 500 yuan per ton. If the S/P ratio cannot stabilize above 60%, inventory pressure will force more factories to cut prices, creating a vicious cycle.
For buyers, the short-term price window does offer bargaining room. However, they should be cautious: such low prices may not be sustainable. Once industry inventories are reduced to reasonable levels or crude oil prices rebound, polyester filament yarn prices could quickly recover. Therefore, procurement decisions should be based on actual order cycles, not just chasing low prices.
From a supply chain perspective, fluctuations in polyester filament yarn prices directly affect cost calculations for downstream weaving and dyeing sectors. In weaving clusters like Shengze and Keqiao, order cycles have shortened to 7–10 days, and companies prefer to buy as needed rather than building safety stocks. This model further suppresses demand elasticity in the chemical fiber market.
Practical Recommendations
For Buyers - Use the current price window to lock in raw material volumes needed for the next 1–2 weeks; avoid speculative stockpiling. - Monitor crude oil and PTA price trends; if upstream costs continue to fall, consider extending the wait-and-see period. - Establish a multi-supplier comparison mechanism, especially targeting enterprises with S/P ratios below 30%, which may offer more flexible pricing.
For Producers - Control inventory to a reasonable level to avoid forced deep discounts due to cash flow pressure. - Differentiate product strategies by increasing the share of high-value-added varieties (e.g., differential fibers, functional polyester filaments) to reduce exposure to price wars on commodity grades. - Strengthen coordination with downstream weaving mills, adopting make-to-order production to reduce blind scheduling.
In summary, the June 24 data is a short-term warning, not a signal of trend reversal. Whether the chemical fiber industry can emerge from its trough in the second half of the year depends on a genuine recovery in end-user consumption and the pace of self-adjustment on the supply side. Textile Circle editors will continue to monitor these developments.