On July 1, the transaction data from the polyester filament yarn market sent a chill through the industry. The average sales rate among sample enterprises was only 35.8%, down 3 percentage points from the previous trading day. This figure means that more than 60% of production capacity failed to convert into actual sales, with inventory pressure accumulating at the production end.
Signals Behind the Sales Data
Looking at the distribution of sales rates among the 24 sample enterprises, extreme divergence is evident. The rates range from 0% to 85%, with the highest concentration near 0% and around 20%. Only a few enterprises achieved rates above 60%. This distribution reveals a stark reality: even within the same market environment, the sales capabilities of different companies vary dramatically. Overall, the market has entered a typical buyer's market, where downstream users hold the pricing initiative.
Notably, while polyester filament yarn manufacturers have adjusted their listed prices, actual transaction prices remain stable. This practice of 'apparent stability with hidden discounts' reflects the upstream companies' dilemma between cost pressure and market share. On one hand, crude oil price volatility keeps raw material costs high; on the other, downstream weaving mills' resistance makes price increases difficult to implement.
The Deep Logic of Upstream-Downstream Price Tug-of-War
The current low sales rate is essentially a concentrated eruption of profit distribution conflicts within the industrial chain. The textile industry is locked in a price tug-of-war: upstream chemical fiber companies try to maintain profits by holding prices, but downstream weaving and dyeing mills, facing weak end-order demand, have a declining tolerance for high-priced raw materials. This game is particularly evident in early July.
From a macro perspective, the repeated turmoil in the Middle East has caused crude oil prices to lose clear upward momentum, directly undermining the cost support for chemical fiber products. Once the cost side weakens, downstream wait-and-see sentiment intensifies, creating a negative cycle of 'the more you don't buy, the more prices fall; the more prices fall, the more you don't buy.' The current 35.8% sales rate is a phased result of this cycle.
Practical Advice for Buyers and Factories
For Buyers - Focus on just-in-time purchasing in the short term to avoid inventory buildup due to price fluctuations, reducing capital occupation risk. - Pay attention to suppliers with sales rates consistently below 20%; these companies may face significant inventory pressure and could offer more flexible payment terms and price discounts during negotiations. - Diversify orders to suppliers with relatively stable sales rates (e.g., above 60%) to ensure delivery stability and quality control.
For Factories - Prioritize existing orders in production scheduling and control the pace of new orders to prevent finished goods inventory from piling up. - For long-term buyers, consider strategies such as 'volume for price' or 'deferred settlement' to secure core customer relationships. - Closely monitor price trends for crude oil and raw materials like PTA and MEG. Once a clear downward signal emerges on the cost side, adjust ex-factory prices promptly to stimulate market transactions.
Every fluctuation in industry data is a footstep of the market's rebalancing. The July sales rate may only be the beginning of a new round of adjustment. For textile industry professionals, maintaining sensitivity to data and flexibility in strategy is more important than ever.