On July 2, the average sales-to-production ratio of polyester filament sample enterprises fell to 31.7%, down 4.1 percentage points from the previous day's closing data. This figure is not only far below the industry's recognized 70% break-even line but also signals that downstream weaving mills are collectively pressing the brakes.
The Sharp Drop in Sales Ratio: A Direct Reflection of Weak End Demand
Looking at the sales data from 25 sample enterprises, the distribution is extremely uneven: the lowest was 0%, the highest only 70%, with more than half reporting ratios below 30%. This phenomenon is not isolated—it directly reflects downstream users' resistance to the current polyester filament price system. High cash flow means upstream still has profit margins, but downstream weaving and texturing mills are squeezed by both high raw material costs and insufficient order volumes.
Inventory pressure is transmitting from the terminal to the midstream. Weaving mills' purchasing willingness is low, actual transactions are scarce, and market sentiment is sluggish. This 'upstream unwilling to cut prices, downstream unwilling to accept' state is essentially a price tug-of-war over profit distribution.
The Logic Behind High Cash Flow and Room for Bargaining
The sustained high cash flow of polyester filament is driven by two factors: first, although crude oil prices have recently lost upward momentum, previous costs have been passed on to the polyester chip stage; second, tight supply of intermediates like PX and PTA supports the polyester chain's price resilience. However, high cash flow also means upstream has room to proactively lower prices.
The market is currently in a typical 'pre-de-stocking cycle.' If the sales ratio stays below 40% for three consecutive weeks, upstream enterprises will likely adopt promotional price cuts to relieve inventory pressure. This could lead to a phased decline in polyester filament prices, offering a window for buyers waiting to bottom-fish.
International Context and Medium-to-Long-Term Variables: The Warning from India's Heatwave
Notably, extreme heat in India has already materially impacted the textile industry—according to industry research, India's textile sector could lose 34 million jobs by 2030 due to this factor. Although this event occurs in South Asia, the global textile supply chain risks it signals are worth noting for domestic enterprises: extreme climate-induced capacity fluctuations, labor shortages, and shrinking end consumption are becoming long-term variables affecting chemical fiber demand.
While repeated geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have temporarily increased crude oil volatility, the market's 'fear of high oil prices' has clearly cooled. Crude oil lacks sustained upward momentum, meaning the polyester cost side will struggle to gain additional support in the short term.