On June 30, the polyester filament market experienced a sharp decline in transaction data. Industry public data shows that the average sales-to-production ratio of sample enterprises was only 38.8%, a drop of 34.4 percentage points from the previous trading day. This indicates that after a wave of replenishment by some customers the day before, market enthusiasm quickly faded, and overall transactions fell into a slump.
Supply-Demand Reality Behind the Numbers
Looking at the specific sales-to-production ratios of sample enterprises, the distribution ranged from 0% to 70%, but most companies were concentrated in the low range of 20%-50%. Two sample enterprises reported a ratio of 0%, meaning they received virtually no new orders that day. Only a few companies achieved ratios above 60%, and none reached full production and full sales. This highly polarized data pattern suggests that downstream weaving enterprises have shifted their procurement strategy from "active stockpiling" to "on-demand sporadic purchasing."
This shift is not an isolated incident. It is a phased result of the long-term game between upstream cost fluctuations in the chemical fiber industry chain and downstream weak demand. Crude oil prices have recently lost upward momentum, and the repeated turmoil in the Middle East has failed to effectively push up oil prices, leaving the polyester raw material sector without clear directional guidance. Polyester filament prices are caught in a prolonged tug-of-war, squeezed by weakening cost support and rising inventory pressure.
Blockage Points in Industrial Transmission
The sharp drop in the polyester filament sales-to-production ratio directly reflects a significant blockage in the transmission chain from chemical fiber factories to weaving mills and ultimately to end-brand apparel companies. Under normal circumstances, as an intermediate product, the polyester filament sales-to-production ratio should remain above 70% to maintain the healthy operation of the industrial chain. A ratio of 38.8% means that more than 60% of production capacity cannot be absorbed by the market, inevitably leading to rapid inventory accumulation at chemical fiber enterprises.
Feedback from key industrial clusters such as Shengze, Changxing, and Xiaoshan indicates that weaving enterprises in these major polyester filament consumption areas are generally facing insufficient orders and thin profit margins. Although terminal garment export orders show signs of recovery, price competition is fierce, and brands are extremely strict about cost control. Weaving mills prefer to purchase raw materials on a "buy as you use" basis, unwilling to take on inventory risks.
Short-term Dynamics and Long-term Structure
The current chemical fiber market is in a typical "inventory reduction game" phase. Upstream polyester factories may resort to price cuts or production cuts to alleviate inventory pressure, while downstream weaving mills wait for lower prices to enter the market. The duration of this game depends on the next direction of crude oil prices and the actual recovery of terminal orders.
From a longer-term perspective, this trough in the sales-to-production ratio also reflects deeper structural factors. The global textile and apparel supply chain is undergoing restructuring, with capacity expansion in Southeast Asian and South Asian countries putting continuous pressure on domestic weaving. Meanwhile, stricter domestic environmental policies have forced some small and medium-sized weaving enterprises to exit the market, further compressing the consumption base for polyester filament. Chemical fiber companies cannot rely solely on short-term price tactics; they need to find breakthroughs through product differentiation, service depth, and supply chain efficiency.