On July 1, the polyester filament yarn market hit a trading low. The average sales-to-production ratio of sample enterprises was only 35.8%, down 3 percentage points from the previous trading day's close. This means that for every 100 tons of polyester filament yarn produced, less than 36 tons were sold, with inventory pressure rapidly building up at polyester mills.
Signals from Production-to-Sales Data
Looking at the specific sample data, the distribution of sales ratios was extremely uneven: the highest reached 85%, while the lowest was 0%. Among the 24 sample enterprises surveyed, nearly two-thirds reported ratios below 40%, with several even recording zero transactions. This extreme divergence suggests that not all polyester filament yarn varieties face the same difficulties—some differentiated products or major brand grades still maintain a certain level of shipment, but conventional specifications have almost fallen into a liquidity trap.
Downstream weaving mills' purchasing willingness has dropped to a low point this year. Industry public data shows that current end-user orders are mainly small-lot, just-in-time purchases, with extremely low stockpiling intentions. This directly conflicts with the price-supporting strategy of upstream polyester mills. Since mid-June, although polyester filament yarn manufacturers have adjusted list prices multiple times, actual transaction prices have remained stable, with limited real concessions. Downstream users' resistance to high prices continues to ferment, and buying remains limited to essential needs, trapping the market in a stalemate of 'mills unwilling to cut prices, buyers unwilling to buy.'
Dual Pressure from Costs and Demand
From the cost transmission chain, recent crude oil prices have lost upward momentum, significantly weakening cost support for the polyester industrial chain. Intermediate raw material prices such as PX and PTA have fluctuated in line with crude oil, failing to provide clear cost-driven signals for polyester filament yarn. Meanwhile, the repeated twists in the Middle East geopolitical situation have not effectively boosted oil prices; instead, they have heightened market concerns about the global economic outlook, further suppressing downstream textile stocking confidence.
On the demand side, more severe challenges loom. Traditional textile exporting countries like India are experiencing extreme heatwaves, impacting employment and production. According to industry forecasts, India's textile industry may lose 34 million jobs by 2030. This long-term trend will profoundly reshape the competitive landscape of the global textile supply chain. For Chinese chemical fiber enterprises, this means increasing competitive pressure in export markets, making the stability of the domestic market even more critical.
Regional Differences in Industrial Belt Responses
Feedback from regional industrial belts shows diverging strategies among different clusters. Some weaving mills in the Shengze area have proactively reduced operating rates to digest previously accumulated grey fabric inventories. In the Keqiao area, mills are more inclined to adopt a just-in-time purchasing strategy, maintaining polyester filament yarn inventories at a safe level of 3-5 days. This cautious approach, in turn, exacerbates the shipment difficulties for polyester mills, forming a negative feedback loop.
It is worth noting that the current low sales ratio does not mean demand has disappeared; rather, it represents a phase of wait-and-see amid price negotiations. Once polyester mills offer substantial concessions, pent-up essential demand may be released en masse. However, the question remains whether mills are willing to break the deadlock first, given no significant cost-side collapse.
Practical Recommendations
For Buyers - Maintain a just-in-time purchasing strategy in the short term, keeping raw material inventory within 7 days to avoid active stockpiling during price stalemates. - Monitor the inventory inflection point of polyester mills—when the average sales ratio of sample enterprises falls below 30% for three consecutive trading days, it is highly likely to trigger price-cutting promotions. - Prioritize suppliers capable of producing differentiated varieties, as such companies have greater pricing flexibility in negotiations and lower supply disruption risks.
For Mills (Polyester Producers) - Evaluate the feasibility of production cuts or shutdowns. The current sales ratio is already below the breakeven point; maintaining full production will only accelerate inventory depreciation. - Adopt a 'volume for price' strategy for conventional specifications to prioritize cash flow recovery; maintain price stability for differentiated varieties to protect profit margins. - Strengthen communication with downstream weaving mills, locking in partial shipments through long-term contracts or volume guarantees to reduce passive speculation in the spot market.
The polyester filament yarn market stands at a critical juncture. A sales ratio of 35.8% is not an endpoint but the starting point of a new round of industrial adjustment. For practitioners, rather than fixating on price fluctuations, it is more important to reassess inventory management and supply chain resilience—these are the core competencies for navigating cycles.