On July 1, the polyester filament yarn market saw sluggish trading, with sample enterprises averaging a sales-to-production ratio of only 35.8%, down 3 percentage points from the previous trading day. This data point is not an isolated case—among nearly 20 sampled enterprises, over half had ratios below 30%, with the lowest at zero. When high prices meet resistance, demand retreats to bare essentials, and the price tug-of-war between upstream and downstream has entered a critical phase.
Price Stalemate and Weak Demand
Looking at specific sales data, the distribution of ratios among sample enterprises was highly uneven: the highest reached 85%, the lowest was 0%, with the median around 25%-30%. This means even if a few companies maintained some shipment volume through specific clients or product advantages, the overall market lacked a foundation for sustained volume. Although polyester filament yarn manufacturers adjusted their listed prices, actual transaction prices remained largely stable, with no large-scale discounts. Downstream weaving enterprises generally adopted a procurement-on-demand strategy, staying on the sidelines for high-priced raw materials.
This 'manufacturers hold prices, users wait' pattern essentially reflects a mismatch in confidence between supply and demand. Upstream polyester plants still have cost support (crude oil, PTA, MEG) and are reluctant to cut prices easily; downstream textile firms face dual pressures of insufficient end orders and accumulated finished goods inventory, lacking motivation to stock up.
External Variables: Crude Oil and Geopolitical Risks
Notably, the current price tug-of-war in the chemical fiber market is not isolated. International crude oil prices have recently lost upward momentum, and despite ongoing Middle East tensions, market concerns over supply disruptions have been largely digested. Crude oil, as the source of the chemical fiber chain, directly affects polyester raw material cost expectations. If crude oil continues to weaken, the cost support for polyester filament yarn will loosen, potentially triggering a new round of price cuts.
On the other hand, extreme weather is reshaping the global textile industry landscape. Research suggests that by 2030, India's textile industry may lose 34 million jobs due to high temperatures. This trend will accelerate the shift of global orders to China and Vietnam, but also means shrinking end-consumer markets—high temperatures reduce outdoor work, lowering demand for workwear and protective clothing categories.
Industry Transmission and Market Expectations
From an industry chain transmission perspective, the current price stalemate may break in the third quarter. On one hand, summer high-temperature power rationing policies may affect weaving enterprise operating rates, further suppressing demand; on the other hand, the traditional peak season for autumn and winter orders is approaching, and if end orders pick up, downstream may be forced to accept current high prices.
For traders and intermediaries, the current phase requires vigilance against inventory depreciation risks. Given persistently low sales ratios, holding too much spot inventory could lead to losses from price corrections. A quick-turn strategy with inventory cycles under 15 days is recommended.