On June 30, the average sales-to-production ratio of polyester filament sample enterprises stood at only 38.8%, plummeting by 34.4 percentage points from the previous trading day. This means that for every 100 tons of polyester filament produced that day, fewer than 39 tons were absorbed by the market, with the remainder turning into inventory. This level is historically low for the chemical fiber industry and typically signals the onset of a cyclical adjustment phase.
Market Signals Behind the Data
Looking at the specific sales data among the 30 sample enterprises, two reported a 0% ratio, meaning zero transactions. Most enterprises fell within the 20%-50% range, with only a few reaching 60%-70%. This distribution indicates a systemic market contraction rather than isolated company issues.
Notably, on the previous day (June 29), a wave of demand-driven replenishment temporarily lifted the ratio to 73.2%. However, just 24 hours later, market enthusiasm evaporated. Such 'one-day wonders' are common in the chemical fiber market, reflecting tentative purchases by downstream mills at low prices rather than trend-based restocking. Once prices fail to rebound as expected, buying halts immediately.
Upstream-Downstream Transmission: Weaving Mills' Inventory and Cash Flow Pressures
The sharp drop in polyester filament sales directly mirrors the operational difficulties of downstream weaving mills. Currently, mills in major clusters such as Shengze, Changxing, and Xiaoshan are grappling with high finished-goods inventories and tight cash flows. Industry data shows that loom utilization rates in these regions have fallen from 78% in April to around 65% in June, with some small and medium enterprises dropping below 50%.
Lower utilization translates to reduced demand for raw materials. Weaving mills prefer to cut production or even halt operations rather than risk stockpiling amid price volatility. This 'produce-to-sell, purchase-on-demand' strategy makes polyester filament sales entirely dependent on end-order volumes. When terminal orders for apparel and home textiles are weak, raw material sales inevitably suffer.
Weakening Cost Support: The Crude Oil-PTA Linkage Effect
The cost of polyester filament is primarily determined by PTA (purified terephthalic acid) and MEG (monoethylene glycol), with PTA prices heavily correlated with crude oil. International crude oil has been oscillating in the $70-75 per barrel range recently, lacking upward momentum. Although Middle East tensions persist, they have not materially disrupted supply, dampening bullish sentiment.
Consequently, spot PTA prices remain in the 5,500-5,700 yuan per ton range, down about 3% from early June. Weakened cost support leaves polyester filament prices without upward fuel. In this environment of soft costs and demand, chemical fiber factories face a dilemma: raising prices leads to no buyers, while lowering prices erodes margins.
Industry Impact: Destocking Cycle Likely to Extend into Mid-July
Synthesizing these factors, the Texworld editorial team believes the polyester filament market is in the early stages of a destocking cycle. The low sales ratio on June 30 is not an anomaly but a concentrated reflection of supply-demand imbalance.
On the supply side, chemical fiber factories maintained high operating rates in May and June, leading to continuous inventory accumulation. Data from the China Chemical Fiber Information Network shows that as of end-June, inventory days for sample enterprises stood at 18-22 days, up 5-7 days from May.
On the demand side, July is traditionally a slow season for textiles, with downstream mills handling mostly small, sporadic orders that cannot support large-scale raw material purchases. Therefore, the destocking process is likely to extend at least until mid-July, during which polyester filament prices will probably remain weak and volatile, with some specifications potentially seeing downward adjustments of 50-100 yuan per ton.