On July 1, the polyester filament yarn market saw sluggish trading, with the average sales-to-production ratio of sample enterprises dropping to 35.8%, down 3.0 percentage points from the previous day's close. This means that for every 100 tons of polyester filament yarn produced, less than 36 tons were sold, with the remainder directly adding to inventory. For an industry reliant on turnover, this ratio is approaching a warning level.
Market Signals Behind the Sales Data
According to public sales data from sample enterprises, the ratio on that day varied widely: the highest reached 85%, while the lowest was 0%. Most enterprises fell within the 20%-40% range, indicating a general lack of effective demand in the market. Notably, the occurrence of a 0% sales rate was not an isolated case, suggesting that some manufacturers failed to complete any substantive transactions, with market liquidity nearly frozen.
On the supply side, while list prices were adjusted, actual transaction prices remained stable. This 'apparent increase with stable reality' strategy essentially tests the downstream tolerance ceiling. However, downstream users remain strongly resistant to current price levels, with procurement strategies fully shifting to just-in-time purchasing, avoiding any inventory buildup.
Root Causes of the Upstream-Downstream Price Stalemate
The current stalemate in the polyester filament yarn market stems from a mismatch between upstream costs and downstream demand. On the upstream side, crude oil prices have lost upward momentum, weakening cost support from raw materials like PX and PTA, but manufacturers are reluctant to cut prices due to high-cost inventory from earlier periods. Downstream weaving enterprises face weak end-order volumes and thin profit margins, continuously lowering their acceptance of high-priced raw materials.
This price tug-of-war is not isolated. Ongoing volatility in the Middle East has brought no clear cost direction for the chemical fiber industry. Meanwhile, extreme weather events—such as India's heatwave leading to expectations of job losses in its textile sector—further weaken global textile demand confidence.
Industrial Impact and Inventory Cycle Realities
From the perspective of major domestic chemical fiber industrial clusters, trading activity in polyester filament yarn has declined to varying degrees in regions like Shengze, Changxing, and Xiaoshan. Rising inventory pressure has led some enterprises to adopt production cuts or maintenance to adjust supply, but these measures are unlikely to reverse weak demand in the short term. Industry experience suggests that if the sales-to-production ratio remains below 40% for a consecutive week, inventory will accumulate rapidly to high levels, potentially triggering a new round of price corrections.
For foreign trade enterprises, the current slow recovery of orders from European and American markets, coupled with increased competition from Southeast Asian textile capacity recovery, has narrowed the export premium for domestic polyester filament yarn. On the domestic front, the autumn/winter fabric stocking season has not yet fully begun, and downstream loom utilization rates remain at 60%-70%, making a concentrated procurement surge unlikely in the near term.