On July 2, the average sales rate of polyester filament yarn among sample enterprises was only 31.7%, down 4.1 percentage points from the previous trading day. This figure means that for every 100 tons of filament yarn produced, fewer than 32 tons were absorbed by the market. Cash flow remains high, but downstream users' resistance persists, with actual deals scarce—the chemical fiber market is trapped in a typical 'high price, low volume' stalemate.
Supply-Demand Mismatch: The Paradox of High Cash Flow and Low Sales
Looking at the specific sales data from 25 sample enterprises, the distribution is highly fragmented: the highest reached 70%, while the lowest was 0%. More than half of the companies had sales rates below 30%, and two firms recorded zero transactions. This divergence indicates that not all enterprises face the same difficulties—some maintain operations through differentiated products or long-term client relationships—but overall market confidence has hit rock bottom.
The persistently high cash flow of polyester filament yarn fundamentally reflects a disconnect between upstream cost pass-through and downstream affordability. While polyester raw material prices fluctuate with crude oil, downstream weaving enterprises, facing weak end-user demand, cannot absorb high-priced filament yarn. Factories refuse to cut prices, buyers prefer to reduce or halt production rather than accept orders—the market is caught in a vicious cycle of 'prices without volume.'
Dual Pressure from Cost Side and External Shocks
The recurring situation in the Middle East has caused crude oil prices to lose upward momentum, which might have alleviated cost pressures for chemical fibers. However, the reality is that crude oil fluctuations have not effectively transmitted to the polyester chain—intermediate products like PX and PTA remain relatively firm, squeezing the profit elasticity of polyester filament yarn. Industry public data shows that the theoretical cash flow of polyester filament yarn is still higher than the two-year average, but actual transactions have clearly discounted, with hidden price cuts eroding book profits.
More alarmingly, external risks loom. India, the world's second-largest textile exporter, is suffering irreversible damage from extreme heatwaves. According to industry research institutions, India's textile industry is projected to lose 34 million jobs by 2030. This is not just an Indian crisis—the restructuring of the global textile supply chain means that capacity damage in Southeast Asia will indirectly affect China's chemical fiber export flows. Some orders originally destined for India may return, but it also signals a contraction in global textile demand.
Long-Term Contradiction: Overcapacity and Weak Demand
China Chemical Fiber Association public data shows that in the first half of 2024, new polyester filament yarn capacity exceeded 2 million tons, while downstream weaving operating rates hovered around 65%. The widening supply-demand gap is the root cause of the current low sales rate. Even if short-term crude oil rebounds or policy stimuli trigger impulsive purchases, it will be difficult to reverse the structural surplus.
For textile enterprises, the most dangerous factor now is not price levels but inventory depreciation risk. If the sales rate remains below 40%, sample enterprises' inventory days will quickly exceed the 30-day warning line, forcing price cuts that could trigger a stampede. Historical experience shows that if the sales rate stays below 35% for two consecutive weeks, polyester filament yarn prices may drop sharply by 5%-8%.