On June 30, the average sales-to-production ratio of polyester filament yarn sample enterprises fell sharply to 38.8%, a drop of 34.4 percentage points from the previous trading day. This means that for every 100 tons of polyester filament yarn produced that day, fewer than 39 tons were absorbed by the market, leaving over 60 tons to swell inventories.
Market Sentiment Behind the Data
According to publicly available industry data, among the 26 sample enterprises surveyed, only 7 had a sales-to-production ratio above 50%, accounting for less than 27% of the total. Two firms reported zero sales, while another five were in the low range of 10%-20%. Even the best-performing company only reached 70%, well below the industry's typical safety threshold of 80%.
This cliff-like decline is not an isolated event. Just one day earlier, on June 29, the average ratio stood at a relatively high 73.2%, driven by restocking for immediate needs. But within 24 hours, market enthusiasm evaporated, suggesting that the previous purchases were short-term stopgaps rather than the start of a restocking cycle.
Downstream Transmission: Why Can't Immediate Needs Sustain Restocking?
The core reason for the plunge lies in the persistent inventory pressure at the weaving level. Since June, terminal textile and apparel orders have entered a traditional off-season, with grey fabric sales slowing and weaving mill operating rates declining from earlier highs. In this environment, mills have become extremely cautious about raw material procurement, preferring to keep low inventory levels rather than tie up capital.
This mindset is clearly reflected in the data: firms with ratios above 50% were mainly major polyester filament suppliers whose clients are large-scale weaving mills that must replenish regularly to maintain continuous production. In contrast, firms with ratios below 30% primarily serve small and medium-sized mills, which now adopt a just-in-time purchasing strategy and are highly sensitive to price changes, immediately entering wait-and-see mode at any sign of price weakness.
The Cost-Price Tug-of-War
Crude oil, the upstream cost driver for the chemical fiber chain, has been fluctuating recently without gaining upward momentum, leaving PTA and MEG prices directionless. Polyester filament producers face a dilemma: lowering prices to stimulate sales could further erode downstream confidence and trigger an industry-wide price war, while holding prices firm risks rapid inventory accumulation.
Current data indicate that the market has entered a typical buyer's waiting phase. Even when some suppliers offer discounts, downstream demand remains tepid. This deadlock is unlikely to break in the short term unless terminal orders show substantial improvement or upstream costs experience unexpected volatility.
Regional Industry Belt Reactions: Procurement Rhythms in Keqiao, Shengze, and Changxing
From a regional perspective, weaving mills in major textile clusters such as Keqiao in Zhejiang, Shengze in Jiangsu, and Changxing in Zhejiang have generally slowed their procurement pace. These regions are core consumer markets for polyester filament yarn and their purchasing behavior heavily influences the overall sales-to-production ratio. Industry channel feedback indicates that since late June, grey fabric inventory destocking in these markets has been slower than expected, with prices for some specifications already softening, further suppressing mills' willingness to buy raw materials.