31.7%—that is the average sales-to-output ratio of polyester filament yarn sample enterprises on July 2, down 4.1 percentage points from the previous day. More alarmingly, multiple zero-transaction samples appeared in the day's sales data, while cash flow remained at historically high levels. The price tug-of-war between upstream and downstream is evolving from an expected game to a hard decoupling of actual supply and demand.
Sales Data: Structural Divergence Behind the Chill
The sales data from 25 sample enterprises on July 2 showed extreme divergence: the highest was 60%, the lowest 0%, and the median only 20%. Specific distribution: 60%, 20%, 70%, 35%, 30%, 30%, 20%, 0%, 30%, 28%, 15%, 20%, 30%, 20%, 30%, 35%, 0%, 30%, 50%, 20%, 8%, 15%, 20%, 30%, 40%. Over half of the enterprises had sales rates below 30%, and two reported zero transactions.
This data is not an isolated event. Compared to the previous day's closing data, the sales rate has dropped from 35.8% to 31.7%, a decrease of 11.5%. Combined with data from July 1, the sales rate has been below 40% for three consecutive days, indicating that downstream purchasing willingness has hit rock bottom. From the perspective of industrial belts, weaving enterprises in Jiangsu and Zhejiang (Shengze, Keqiao) generally report insufficient orders, with operating rates hovering around 60%, directly reducing raw material procurement demand.
High Cash Flow: Upstream 'Price Fortress' vs Downstream 'Cost Anxiety'
The persistently high cash flow of polyester filament yarn is the core of the current contradiction. Upstream PTA and ethylene glycol, affected by crude oil price fluctuations, have not seen significant cost loosening; but downstream weaving enterprises face dual pressure from shrinking terminal apparel orders and inventory accumulation. According to industry public data, grey fabric inventory in Shengze has climbed to over 35 days, and cash flow for weaving enterprises is generally tight.
This means that upstream chemical fiber plants try to pass on costs by maintaining high cash flow, but downstream users have strong 'resistance'—procurement parties prefer to cut production or use inventory rather than accept current quotes. The market atmosphere is cold, with few actual transactions, forming a typical 'price with no market' pattern. If this deadlock continues, upstream enterprises may face backlash from inventory accumulation and cash flow deterioration.
Regional and Category Transmission: Chain Reaction from Filament to Fabric
As the core raw material for chemical fiber fabrics, the sluggish sales of polyester filament yarn are transmitting to the downstream fabric market. Data from Keqiao Light Textile City shows that inquiries for conventional fabrics like simulation silk and polyester taffeta have dropped 15%-20% month-on-month, with prices showing signs of loosening. The Nantong home textile market also feels the chill, with bed sheet fabric orders being small-batch and multi-spec, lacking large orders.
From a timing perspective, July should be the start of autumn-winter fabric stocking, but this year's stocking pace is clearly lagging. On the foreign trade front, destocking in European and American markets is slow, and low-priced fabrics from competitor countries like Bangladesh and Vietnam continue to impact domestic orders. On the domestic front, under the consumption downgrade trend, brand apparel companies prefer 'production by sales', compressing upstream stocking space.