The polyester filament market is experiencing a rare 'cold spell.' On July 1, industry data showed the average sales-to-production ratio of sample enterprises was only 35.8%, down 3 percentage points from the previous trading day. More alarmingly, among the 24 companies surveyed, four reported zero sales, and the highest reached only 85%.
Signals Behind the Sales Data
This sales list paints a clear industry picture: downstream weaving companies strongly resist current polyester filament prices. Although manufacturers have adjusted list prices, actual transactions remain stable, with no expected price cuts. The result is that buying is almost entirely driven by rigid demand—purchasing only the minimum raw materials needed to maintain operations, with no inventory buildup.
Looking at the data distribution, only five companies (about 21%) had sales ratios above 60%, while 11 companies (nearly 46%) were below 30%. This severe divergence means that even the pricing strategies of leading firms have failed to stimulate overall demand.
Deepening Price Game
Polyester filament, as a core midstream raw material in the textile chain, has long been viewed as a 'thermometer' of market warmth. The 35.8% level is significantly below the industry's recognized 50% threshold, indicating that inventory pressure is rapidly accumulating upstream.
On the cost side, international crude oil prices have recently fluctuated repeatedly, losing upward momentum. This directly undermines the logic of chemical fiber manufacturers passing costs downstream. Downstream users have clearly picked up on this signal—why buy at high prices when raw material costs lack support?
A deeper contradiction lies in the fact that end-market demand for apparel and home textiles is recovering far slower than expected. India's textile industry, hit by extreme heat, is projected to lose 34 million jobs by 2030. This extreme weather event's impact on the global textile supply chain is now being transmitted to China's chemical fiber market through reduced orders.
Practical Impact on Buyers and Mills
For weaving companies, the low sales ratio does not mean they can relax. Upstream manufacturers may launch price cuts to destock at any time under inventory pressure, but the timing and magnitude are hard to predict. Once a sell-off occurs, buyers maintaining low inventories could face a dilemma between falling replenishment costs and missed opportunities.
For polyester filament producers, a 35.8% sales ratio means slowing cash flow turnover. If this trend persists for more than two weeks, production cuts or maintenance shutdowns will become inevitable. At that point, the supply-demand relationship could quickly shift from a 'buyer's market' to a 'seller's market,' amplifying price volatility.