On July 3, the average production-sales ratio of polyester filament sample enterprises fell to 33%, a mere 1.3 percentage point increase from the previous day. This figure is a stark warning. In a normal year, the ratio typically hovers between 60% and 80%; anything below 50% signals market weakness. A 33% ratio means that for every three tons of filament produced, only one ton is actually sold. This is not a short-term fluctuation but a signal that the chemical fiber industry chain is locked in a deep standoff.
Behind the Data: A Fragmented Market
Public data reveals extreme divergence among sample enterprises: the lowest production-sales ratio was 0%, while the highest reached 200%. This polarization points to a structural split rather than a total market collapse. Companies with a 200% ratio likely achieved short-term destocking through sharp price cuts or special channels; those at 0% may be stuck due to price rigidity or customer loss. The 33% overall ratio, up only slightly from 31.7% the previous day, shows no signs of a rebound. Manufacturers are divided: some cut prices to move inventory, others hold firm. This divergence itself reflects a market lacking direction.
Squeezed from Both Sides: Costs and Demand
Polyester filament faces dual pressure. On the cost side, while the Middle East situation remains volatile, crude oil prices have lost upward momentum. WTI crude has been oscillating around $70 per barrel since July, leaving PTA and ethylene glycol without clear direction. Downstream textile mills expect further price drops and delay purchases, buying only for immediate needs.
On the demand side, global textile and apparel demand recovery remains sluggish. India's extreme heat wave threatens to cut 34 million textile jobs by 2030, while destocking cycles in Europe and the US are not yet complete. Domestic weaving mill operating rates in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have fallen below 70%, reducing actual polyester filament consumption. The low production-sales ratio is essentially a time and volume gap between production and sales.
Price Standoff and Inventory Game
The chemical fiber industry is locked in a classic price standoff. Upstream polyester mills want to maintain margins and avoid deep price cuts; downstream weavers and traders expect further declines and stick to a 'buy on rising, not falling' strategy. The result: transaction volumes shrink dramatically, and inventory cannot shift downstream.
Industry patterns suggest that when the production-sales ratio stays below 40% for several consecutive days, the market transitions from 'passive restocking' to 'active destocking.' Active destocking means companies start cutting prices to clear inventory, even at a loss, to free up cash. If the ratio remains low over the next two weeks, polyester filament prices will likely see a significant drop.