The polyester filament yarn market is experiencing a typical 'volume-price divergence' pain. According to industry public data on July 1, the average sales-to-output ratio of sample enterprises was only 35.8%, down 3 percentage points from the previous day, with some enterprises even reporting zero sales. This means that for every 100 tons of polyester filament yarn produced that day, less than 36 tons found buyers.
Sharp Drop in Sales-to-Output Ratio: Downstream 'Votes with Feet'
The sales-to-output ratio is a core leading indicator of supply-demand matching in the chemical fiber market. The 35.8% level has been below the boom-bust line for several consecutive days and is still deteriorating. From the specific sample data, the distribution on that day was highly uneven: the highest reached 85%, while the lowest was 0%, with more than half of the enterprises below 30%. This divergence indicates that even within the same category, differences in pricing strategies and customer stickiness are amplifying market uncertainty.
Downstream users' 'price resistance sentiment' is the direct driver. Against the backdrop of high raw material costs, weaving enterprises generally adopt a conservative 'produce-to-order' procurement strategy, maintaining only just-in-time replenishment. Behind this lies the weakness in terminal apparel orders—weaving mills dare not hoard inventory, as any price correction would directly erode profits.
Price Game: Upstream Price Support vs. Downstream Price Pressure
While polyester filament yarn manufacturers have adjusted their list prices, actual transactions remain stable. This 'apparent adjustment, actual stability' operation reflects the upstream dilemma: on one hand, raw material costs like PTA and MEG still provide support, and significant price cuts would compress already thin processing margins; on the other hand, persistently low sales ratios mean inventory pressure is building, and if downstream continues 'cold treatment', passive stockpiling may eventually force price cuts.
Historical experience shows that when the sales-to-output ratio remains below 40% for a week, polyester filament yarn prices are likely to drop by 200-300 yuan per ton. This critical point is now approaching. For polyester plants, whether to proactively cut prices to destock in early July will determine the profit trajectory for the early third quarter.
Industrial Chain Transmission: From Filament to Grey Fabric to Garment
Polyester filament yarn is a core raw material for the weaving sector, and its sales conditions directly transmit to the grey fabric and fabric markets. The current light trading in filament means there is a downside risk to weaving mill operating rates. If weaving mills reduce production due to high raw material prices or insufficient orders, it will further compress demand for filament, forming a negative feedback loop.
Notably, July is typically a traditional off-season for the textile industry. Combined with this year's weaker-than-expected recovery in global textile and apparel demand, this negative feedback may be more pronounced than in previous years. For shuttle weaving and warp knitting enterprises that primarily use polyester filament yarn, the next two months will be critical for cash flow management.