On July 3, the average sales rate of polyester filament yarn among sample enterprises was only 33.0%, a mere 1.3 percentage points increase from the previous trading day. This figure underscores prolonged sluggish transactions in the chemical fiber market. Manufacturers' sentiments have diverged, with some tentatively lowering local prices, but downstream users only making essential replenishments, leaving the market without clear directional signals.
Sales Data Reflect Market Weakness
According to publicly available data from 24 sample enterprises on July 3, only one achieved a sales rate of 200%, while the majority ranged between 15% and 50%. The specific breakdown: 50%, 25%, 30%, 30%, 35%, 20%, 40%, 20%, 200%, 35%, 30%, 15%, 15%, 30%, 35%, 30%, 25%, 0%, 30%, 40%, 10%, 15%, 30%, 40%, 40%. More than half of the enterprises had sales rates at or below 30%, with one reporting zero sales for the day.
This extreme divergence indicates that a few enterprises may have secured temporary orders through customer relationships or spot advantages, but the vast majority face mounting inventory pressure. Industry data shows that the overall sales rate for polyester filament yarn has hovered between 30% and 40% for consecutive days, far below the commonly recognized breakeven point of 70%.
Deepened Stalemate in Supply Chain
The primary reason for low sales rates is insufficient purchasing willingness among downstream weaving enterprises. From the chain perspective, export orders for terminal garments have not recovered as expected, and weaving mills themselves operate at low capacity, maintaining minimal raw material inventories and purchasing only on demand. The "selective price cuts" by polyester filament yarn manufacturers failed to stimulate demand and instead reinforced market wait-and-see attitudes.
Simultaneously, crude oil prices on the cost side have lost upward momentum, with premiums from geopolitical tensions in the Middle East gradually being digested. Prices of polyester raw materials PTA and MEG have weakened accordingly, leaving polyester filament yarn without cost support for price increases. This dual squeeze of "costs not rising, demand not booming" puts chemical fiber manufacturers in a dilemma: lowering prices compresses profit margins, while holding prices leads to rising inventories.
Regional Industry Reactions
In major chemical fiber production clusters such as Xiaoshan, Shaoxing in Zhejiang, and Shengze in Jiangsu, inventories of polyester filament yarn have generally risen. Some small and medium-sized polyester plants have begun voluntary production cuts or scheduled maintenance to alleviate supply pressure. In contrast, large integrated enterprises, leveraging their chain advantages, maintain relatively high operating rates but still face sales pressure.
This regional and scale divergence indicates that the industry is undergoing a passive destocking phase. For buyers, this represents a window for price negotiations, but they should remain cautious about potential supply tightening from subsequent production cuts.
Path to Breakthrough: Production Cuts and Structural Upgrades
Facing persistently low sales rates, industry consensus is forming: relying solely on price promotions is no longer effective; active supply-side adjustments are necessary. Several polyester plants have recently announced maintenance plans for mid-to-late July, involving approximately 500,000 tons/year of polyester filament yarn capacity. If more enterprises follow suit, supply-demand balance may be restored around August.
Long-term, however, the chemical fiber industry must move beyond a "price war" mindset. Low-value-added conventional yarns are highly homogeneous and vulnerable. Enterprises should accelerate the transition to differentiated products, such as cationic dyeable polyester, high-elastic yarns, and functional fabric yarns, which maintain relatively stable sales rates even in weak markets.