On July 1, the polyester filament market sent a cold signal: the average sales-to-production ratio of sample enterprises was only 35.8%, down 3 percentage points from the previous trading day. This means that for every 100 tons of filament produced that day, less than 36 tons were actually sold to downstream users. Inventory pressure is quietly building up.
Signals Behind the Data
Looking at specific sample data, the day's sales-to-production ratios were highly dispersed, ranging from a high of 85% to as low as zero. Among the sample enterprises, more than half had ratios below 30%. This 'ice and fire' situation indicates that while not all companies face the same sales difficulties, overall market sentiment has clearly turned cold.
The core reason is the strong price resistance from downstream users. Although polyester filament manufacturers adjusted their list prices, actual transaction prices remained stable without substantial concessions. Users maintained only essential purchases, refusing to stockpile, which directly led to the low sales ratio.
Industry Analysis: Buyer Power in the Price Standoff
What does a 35.8% sales-to-production ratio mean? From an industry cycle perspective, when this ratio consistently falls below 40%, it often signals a shift from a seller's market to a buyer's market. The cost-driven price increases experienced by the chemical fiber industry over the past two years are now being met with a 'vote by feet' from downstream demand.
This phenomenon is not isolated. Recently, international crude oil prices have lost upward momentum, and repeated fluctuations in the Middle East situation have failed to boost oil prices, weakening upstream cost support for chemical fiber. Meanwhile, extreme heat in India is projected to reduce its textile industry by 34 million jobs by 2030, putting long-term pressure on global textile supply chains due to shrinking demand.
For polyester filament, current prices remain high but lack transaction support. This 'price without volume' situation is unsustainable. In the next one to two months, if the sales ratio cannot recover to above 50%, upstream companies may be forced to cut prices to reduce inventory.
Industrial Belt Transmission and Procurement Strategy
Looking at the response from industrial belts, major polyester filament producing areas such as Shengze, Changxing, and Xiaoshan are showing divergence: some large factories maintain profits through price support strategies, while small and medium enterprises face cash flow pressure. Downstream weaving companies generally adopt a 'buy-as-needed' strategy, unwilling to bear inventory risk.
For buyers, the current phase offers a rare negotiation window. Upstream inventory pressure has not yet been fully released but is beginning to loosen. It is recommended to closely monitor weekly sales ratio data; if it remains below 30% for two consecutive weeks, it can be seen as a signal of a price inflection point.