The thermometer of the polyester filament yarn market plunged to freezing point on June 30. Industry public data shows that the average sales-to-production ratio of sample enterprises was only 38.8%, a sharp drop of 34.4 percentage points from the previous trading day. After a wave of essential restocking by some customers the day before, market enthusiasm quickly faded, and overall transactions fell into a slump.
Market Sentiment Reflected in Production-Sales Data
Looking at individual enterprises, the production-sales data showed extreme divergence: two companies reported a zero ratio on that day, while another four had ratios as low as 10%-15%. Even the best-performing company only achieved a 70% ratio, failing to cross the 80% threshold. This means the majority of chemical fiber factories failed to convert their daily output into actual sales, leading to rapidly accumulating inventory pressure.
This cliff-like decline is not an isolated event. Historically, a polyester filament yarn sales-to-production ratio of 60%-80% is considered normal, while a ratio below 50% signals a typical market wait-and-see period. The June 30 data hit the lowest point in nearly three months.
Upstream-Downstream Transmission: A Tug-of-War Between Costs and Demand
The direct trigger for the plunge in production-sales ratios is a serious divergence in price expectations between upstream and downstream players. On the upstream side, crude oil prices have lost upward momentum amid repeated fluctuations in the Middle East situation, weakening cost support for raw materials like PTA and MEG. However, polyester filament yarn factories are reluctant to cut prices significantly due to inventory pressure. Downstream weaving enterprises generally hold a 'buy on rising, not on falling' mentality, choosing to postpone purchases when raw material prices are expected to weaken.
More alarmingly, this tug-of-war is beginning to transmit to the end-use apparel and home textile sectors. The extreme heatwave in India has triggered market concerns about a contraction in global textile employment—some institutions predict India's textile industry could lose 34 million jobs by 2030. Although this forecast targets the South Asian market, it reflects the broader backdrop of shrinking global textile demand, placing long-term pressure on domestic chemical fiber exports.
Chain Reactions in Regional Industrial Clusters
Major polyester filament yarn producing regions, such as Shengze, Changxing, and Xiaoshan, are facing dual pressure from operating rates and inventory. Some factories have begun to adopt production cuts or maintenance strategies to balance supply and demand, which will reduce market supply over the next two weeks. However, in the short term, companies with high inventory may take the lead in cutting prices to clear stock, further depressing market prices.
For downstream weaving clusters like Keqiao and Nantong, fluctuations in raw material prices directly compress the profit margins of grey fabrics. Current grey fabric orders are mostly small and urgent, with large-order buyers generally requiring 'just-in-time' purchasing, unwilling to bear the risk of raw material price declines. This cautious sentiment, in turn, exacerbates the weakness in polyester filament yarn production and sales.