On July 2, the average sales-to-production ratio of sampled polyester filament yarn enterprises dropped to 31.7%, down 4.1 percentage points from the previous trading day. This figure means that for every 100 tons of polyester filament yarn produced that day, fewer than 32 tons were sold, with inventory pressure rapidly accumulating in the midstream of the supply chain.
The Paradox of High Cash Flow and Low Transactions
The persistently low sales-to-production ratio is directly attributed to the high cash flow of polyester filament yarn. According to industry public data, high cash flow implies that production margins remain decent, but ironically, this 'profit illusion' suppresses downstream willingness to purchase. Weaving mills, facing high raw material prices, generally adopt a 'make-to-order' procurement strategy, avoiding stockpiling or chasing price increases, resulting in a sluggish market atmosphere with few actual transactions.
Examining the specific sales data of sample enterprises on that day reveals an extremely uneven distribution: many companies reported sales ratios of only 20% or even 0%, while a few achieved 60% or 70%. This divergence highlights the vast differences in sales pressure faced by suppliers of varying scales and product portfolios—commodity-grade products are almost unsalable, while differentiated and functional products maintain a certain flow rate.
Upstream-Downstream Price Stalemate: Who Blinks First?
The core contradiction in the current polyester filament yarn market is clear: upstream polyester plants, buoyed by high cash flow, are reluctant to cut prices, while downstream weaving mills, squeezed by thin order profits, refuse to accept high-priced raw materials. This 'price tug-of-war' has persisted for weeks, leaving intermediate traders with high inventory levels and a strong wait-and-see attitude.
For downstream weaving mills, raw material costs account for over 60% of total production costs. If polyester filament yarn prices remain firm, they will directly compress grey fabric profit margins, potentially forcing some small and medium-sized factories to reduce production or halt operations. From a macro perspective, if this deadlock continues into mid-July, it could trigger two chain reactions. First, upstream polyester plants may be forced to conduct maintenance shutdowns to alleviate inventory pressure. Second, downstream weaving mills may increase procurement of recycled fibers or differentiated staple fibers, creating a substitution effect.
Export Orders Under Pressure: Dual Squeeze from Exchange Rates and Raw Materials
For export-oriented weaving mills, the current situation is even more challenging. On one hand, high polyester filament yarn prices weaken the price competitiveness of exported grey fabrics. On the other hand, fluctuating RMB exchange rates and high shipping costs have led overseas buyers to extend their ordering cycles and shrink order sizes. Industry public data indicates a recent slowdown in the growth rate of China's textile and apparel exports, directly attributable to raw material price volatility shortening the validity period of quotations, making overseas buyers hesitant to lock in prices.
It is worth noting that the recurring situation in the Middle East has caused crude oil prices to lose upward momentum, potentially offering some relief on the cost side for polyester filament yarn. However, the transmission of crude oil prices to polyester chips and then to polyester filament yarn typically takes 2-3 weeks, so the high-price deadlock is unlikely to break in the short term.