On July 1, the average sales-to-production ratio of polyester filament yarn (PFY) among sample enterprises fell to 35.8%, down 3 percentage points from the previous trading day. This means that for every 100 tons of PFY produced, fewer than 36 tons were sold, indicating a rapid accumulation of inventory pressure.
Why Are Buyers 'Lying Flat'?
According to disclosed industry data, more than half of the sample enterprises reported a sales-to-production ratio of 30% or below on that day, with some even hitting zero. The 35.8% average is already a near-month low, reflecting that downstream weaving and texturing mills have almost no appetite for purchasing.
The core issue lies in price negotiation. Although PFY producers adjusted their nominal prices, actual transactions remained stable without significant concessions. Downstream users, facing high inventory of grey fabrics and unclear end-demand from apparel orders, are reluctant to stock up at current prices. This standoff—'you hold prices, I won't buy'—has directly led to thin market activity.
Feedback from major weaving clusters in Jiangsu and Zhejiang (such as Shengze, Changxing, and Xiaoshao) shows that operating rates have begun to decline. Some small and medium-sized mills have opted for staggered production or temporary shutdowns due to insufficient orders. This suggests that the demand-side support for PFY is weakening, not just a short-term sentiment fluctuation.
Inventory Pressure: Who Bears the Brunt?
The first to feel the pain are polyester plants. Industry convention holds that when PFY inventory days exceed 20, cash flow pressure mounts. With the sales-to-production ratio already below 40% for several days, if this trend continues, some plants may be forced to cut production or schedule maintenance within the next 1-2 weeks to balance supply and demand.
For traders, the current timing carries high risk for stockpiling. On one hand, crude oil prices lack upward momentum due to recurring Middle East tensions, leaving no cost support for fiber prices. On the other hand, the recovery of end-demand remains uncertain; a premature 'bottom-fishing' could lead to losses.
It is worth noting that downstream weavers' 'price resistance' is not mere sentiment but a rational response to order visibility. In the first half of 2026, textile and apparel export growth has slowed compared to the same period last year, with restocking cycles in Europe and the US nearing completion and domestic demand showing no explosive growth. Weavers are adopting a 'produce-to-order, buy-as-needed' strategy to hedge against uncertainty through low inventory.