On July 2, the chemical fiber market posted a disappointing sales report. Industry data shows that the average sales rate of polyester filament yarn samples was only 31.7%, down 4.1 percentage points from the previous trading day. This means nearly 70% of capacity failed to convert into actual sales, pushing market activity to a freezing point.
The Cost-Demand Tug-of-War Behind Low Sales
The sales rate falling below 30% is directly linked to the high cash flow of polyester filament yarn. High cash flow suggests upstream companies still have room to pass on raw material costs, but downstream resistance is intensifying. The distribution of sales rates across sample companies was highly uneven: some recorded zero sales, while the highest was only 70%, with most falling between 15% and 35%. This divergence indicates significant differences in pricing power and customer loyalty even within the same supply chain.
For downstream weaving and dyeing companies, high cash flow means continued procurement cost pressure. With no clear recovery in end-demand for apparel and home textiles, downstream firms prefer low inventory and just-in-time purchasing rather than stockpiling. This 'buy on rising, not on falling' mentality is amplified at high prices, leading to persistently sluggish market transactions.
Industrial Cluster Transmission and Regional Inventory Pressure
The low sales rate is not an isolated phenomenon. From a supply chain perspective, the price stalemate in upstream chemical fiber raw materials is spreading downstream. In major textile clusters like Shengze and Keqiao, local weaving mill operating rates remain stable, but new orders are mostly small and short-term, lacking large contracts. This means that even if upstream companies try to maintain profits through price support, downstream acceptance continues to decline.
From an inventory perspective, if the sales rate stays around 30% for an extended period, finished goods inventory days for sample companies will rise rapidly. Industry experience shows that when inventory days exceed 20, financial and warehousing pressures increase significantly, potentially forcing some companies to cut prices to clear stock. The early July data sounds an alarm: if the sales rate does not recover above 50% in the next two weeks, the chemical fiber market may face a price correction.
External Variables and Short-Term Outlook
The current market is also indirectly affected by crude oil price fluctuations. Despite repeated tensions in the Middle East, crude oil has recently lost upward momentum, weakening cost support for upstream materials like PX and PTA. This provides external conditions for a potential easing of polyester filament yarn prices. However, the slight decline in costs has not yet transmitted to the spot market, as upstream and downstream remain in a price tug-of-war waiting for a breakthrough signal.
For buyers, the current market is a typical 'wait-and-see' period. The Textile Circle Editorial Department recommends that buyers closely monitor inventory data and cash flow changes. If the sales rate stays below 40% for more than a week, consider small, phased restocking before month-end to capitalize on potential price reductions.