Polyester Filament Market Deadlock: Low Production-Sales Ratio and Divergent Strategies

On July 3, the average production-sales ratio of domestic polyester filament sample enterprises was only 33.0%, up slightly by 1.3 percentage points from the previous trading day. Behind this figure lies a sluggish market with divergent manufacturer sentiment, sending complex signals about procurement and pricing expectations downstream in the textile supply chain.

Production-Sales Data Reveals Market Polarization

A closer look at individual sample enterprises shows stark polarization. On that day, most companies reported ratios between 15% and 40%, such as 20%, 25%, 30%, and 35%, while a few outliers hit 200%, and one recorded 0%. This "ice and fire" pattern indicates that demand is not universally shrinking but is concentrated in specific regions or product types.

A ratio below 30% means most factories sold less than one-third of their daily output, leading to rising inventory pressure. Meanwhile, downstream weaving mills are only replenishing on a strict need basis, showing reluctance to build stockpiles. This "buy-as-needed" approach reflects ongoing uncertainty in end-order demand.

Divergent Manufacturer Strategies and Price Game

Facing weak data, polyester filament manufacturers have not responded uniformly. Some have cut local prices to stimulate sales, while others hold firm, betting on cost support from crude oil and PTA or a future demand rebound. This strategic divergence essentially reflects different outlooks: bears aim to destock early, while bulls rely on raw material price resilience.

However, downstream users have not reacted strongly to price cuts. The pace of need-based replenishment means even lower prices may not trigger bulk purchases. This is rooted in the weaving sector's own thin margins and weak orders. If upstream price cuts fail to transmit to end products, they will only squeeze intermediate profits rather than stimulate real demand.

Cost Transmission and Inventory Pressure

Polyester filament costs are heavily influenced by crude oil and PTA prices. Recent fluctuations in the Middle East have stalled crude's upward momentum, weakening cost support for the polyester chain. Meanwhile, ample PTA supply has not tightened. Under dual pressure from costs and demand, manufacturers' pricing power is eroded.

Accumulating inventories are becoming a hidden concern. If the production-sales ratio remains around 30%, factory capital will be tied up, potentially triggering broader price cuts. For buyers, this suggests further downside risk for polyester filament prices in the next 1-2 weeks, though some specifications may face temporary shortages due to production cuts.

Practical Recommendations

For Procurement Departments - Adopt a "batch purchasing, buy on dips" strategy to avoid large bulk orders, hedging against possible further price declines. - Focus on enterprises with abnormally high ratios (e.g., 200%) as they may indicate temporary shortages of specific specifications; proactively inquire to secure supply. - Leverage the window of divergent manufacturer sentiment to compare multiple quotes, prioritizing suppliers willing to offer short-term lock-in contracts at reduced prices.

For Foreign Trade Companies - When quoting export orders, build in a 1-2 week buffer for raw material price fluctuations to avoid margin erosion from domestic price drops. - Monitor RMB exchange rates and sea freight changes; the current weak domestic versus strong international price gap may create a cost advantage for export products. - When communicating with overseas clients, proactively offer preferential quotes based on current low raw material prices to win new orders.