On July 1, the average sales-to-production ratio of polyester filament yarn sample enterprises fell to 35.8%, down 3 percentage points from the previous day. This number means that for every 100 tons of polyester filament yarn produced, less than 36 tons were purchased by the market. Against the backdrop of the traditional off-season in the textile industry, this data serves as a signal flare, illuminating the stalemate between supply and demand in the chemical fiber market.
The Logic Behind the Sharp Decline
The sales-to-production ratio is a core indicator of market heat. The 35.8% figure not only falls below the industry's typical 50% threshold but also reflects an extremely low willingness to purchase among downstream weaving enterprises. Looking at the specific data released for that day, the differentiation among sample enterprises is remarkable: the highest reached 85%, while the lowest was 0%, with most companies concentrated in the 20% to 40% range. This highly discrete distribution indicates that not all enterprises face the same difficulties. Some manufacturers may barely maintain operations through product differentiation or customer relationships, but the overall market has fallen into a serious wait-and-see mood.
Downstream users' 'persistent resistance to high prices' is the direct cause of sluggish transactions. Although polyester filament yarn manufacturers have adjusted their list prices, actual transaction prices remain stable, with no substantial concessions. This means that upstream polyester factories still have some support from the cost side (mainly PTA and MEG) and are unwilling to cut prices significantly during the off-season. Meanwhile, downstream weaving enterprises, due to insufficient terminal orders and accumulated finished product inventories, remain extremely cautious about raw material procurement. The divergence in price expectations between the two sides has led to the current 'price without volume' deadlock.
Industrial Transmission: A Chain Reaction from Polyester to Weaving
The decline in the polyester filament yarn sales-to-production ratio is the result of a combined effect: upstream cost games in the chemical fiber industry and weak downstream demand. From the upstream perspective, crude oil prices have recently fluctuated but lack sustained upward momentum, causing the cost support for polyester raw materials to loosen but not collapse. From the downstream perspective, the textile industry is in its traditional production off-season, coupled with slowing global economic growth and weak terminal consumer demand. Weaving enterprises generally have low operating rates, and their raw material procurement naturally focuses on essential replenishment, lacking the willingness to stockpile actively.
This transmission effect is not one-way. The accumulation of polyester filament yarn inventories will force polyester factories to subsequently adopt production cuts or price reductions, which in turn will transmit pressure upstream to the PTA and MEG segments. If the off-season persists, it is not impossible to see more polyester plant maintenance or load reductions. For weaving enterprises, the current window for low-cost raw materials may be fleeting—once upstream costs rebound or downstream orders start ahead of the peak season, raw material prices could rise quickly.
Differentiated Performance by Region and Category
Although the overall data is weak, performance may vary by region and category. The sample enterprise with a sales-to-production ratio of 85% is likely focused on producing fine denier, functional, or differentiated polyester filament yarns. These products, due to high technical barriers and low substitutability, can still secure stable orders from specific customers. In contrast, enterprises with a 0% ratio are likely concentrated in producers of conventional specifications (such as POY, FDY, DTY), which suffer from severe homogenization and are the first to be affected during the off-season.
From a regional perspective, inventory pressure in major polyester filament yarn producing areas such as Shengze, Changxing, and Xiaoshan may be more pronounced. Meanwhile, the procurement pace in weaving hubs like Nantong and Keqiao directly reflects the actual demand status of the downstream sector. Foreign trade enterprises should pay special attention to the restocking cycle of overseas markets—if the European and American markets start preparing orders for the Christmas season in late summer, it could bring a glimmer of hope to the current sluggish market.