On July 3, the average sales rate of polyester filament yarn (PFY) sample enterprises was reported at 33.0%, up only 1.3 percentage points from the previous trading day. In the daily sales data, most enterprises were concentrated in the 20% to 40% range, with only one sample enterprise reaching an abnormal value of 200%, and none of the remaining enterprises exceeded the 50% threshold. This data indicates that more than 60% of sample enterprises had a daily sales rate below the industry's recognized break-even line, and the chemical fiber market is undergoing a deep adjustment characterized by low sales, high inventory, and weak confidence.
Signals Behind the Sales Data
Looking at the distribution of sales rates among 24 sample enterprises, the lowest value was 0%, the highest was 200%, but the median was only about 30%. This long-tail distribution reveals a key fact: a very few enterprises achieved phased destocking through localized price cuts or special channels, but the vast majority are still under shipment pressure. An average sales rate of 33.0% means that for every 100 tons of PFY produced that day, only 33 tons were actually purchased by downstream users, with the remaining 67 tons turning into inventory. If this state persists, industry inventory days will quickly climb to over 30 days, approaching the high level of the same period in 2023.
It is noteworthy that the sales rate data of sample enterprises has been hovering in the range of 30% to 35% for consecutive days. Comparing with data from late June, the market has not shown the traditional pre-season stocking recovery. Downstream weaving enterprises' operating rates are also low, with the comprehensive operating rate of water-jet looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions below 65%, and the operating rate of texturing machines falling back to below 60%. The simultaneous weakening of upstream and downstream indicates that this is not a fluctuation in a single link, but a systemic reaction to the contraction of demand in the entire textile industry chain.
Divergent Manufacturer Sentiment and Price Game
Facing low sales rates, PFY manufacturers have not taken unified action. Some enterprises choose to maintain prices, keeping previous quotes to wait for demand recovery; others adopt a profit-for-volume approach, reducing quotes for POY and FDY varieties by 50-100 yuan per ton. This divergence reflects the split in industry judgment on the outlook: bulls believe that crude oil prices are still fluctuating above $70 per barrel, so cost support will not collapse; bears point out that downstream end garment orders have shown a month-on-month decline, and major markets like India are seeing reduced employment due to extreme heat, with global textile consumption shrinking.
From the cost side, international crude oil prices fluctuated in early July due to the repeated situation in the Middle East, but the upward momentum has clearly weakened. Prices of upstream raw materials such as PX and PTA also fluctuated narrowly, failing to provide clear direction for PFY. With both cost and demand lacking breakthrough power, the market has entered a typical price tug-of-war phase. For buyers, the current price is neither an absolute low nor a high, making purchase decisions extremely difficult.
Industry Chain Transmission and Regional Market Reactions
Inventory pressure has begun to transmit upstream. Some polyester plants have announced production cuts for maintenance, with planned reductions of 10% to 15%. This move may help alleviate oversupply in the short term, but it also indicates that enterprises hold pessimistic expectations for future demand improvement. Traders in chemical fiber industry clusters such as Shaoxing and Xiaoshan report a significant decrease in downstream inquiry frequency recently, and even offering discounts on acceptance bills has failed to stimulate actual transactions.
At the same time, the export market is also under pressure. According to data from the General Administration of Customs, the export value of textile yarns, fabrics, and related products increased by about 2% year-on-year in the first half of 2024, but the growth rate slowed by nearly 5 percentage points from the first quarter. The main export destinations of PFY—Southeast Asia and South Asia markets—have seen weakened purchasing intentions due to local currency depreciation and sluggish end-consumer demand. Some weaving factories in Vietnam and Bangladesh have even postponed orders to the end of the third quarter, further exacerbating the inventory pressure of domestic enterprises.