On July 2, the polyester filament industry presented a 'fire and ice' report card: the average sales-to-production ratio of sample enterprises stood at only 31.7%, down 4.1 percentage points from the previous trading day. Meanwhile, cash flows remained high. Downstream users' resistance persisted, market transactions were sluggish, and actual deals were scarce. This contrasting data indicates that the upstream-downstream tug-of-war in the chemical fiber chain has entered a stalemate where 'whoever blinks first loses.'
Sales Data Panorama: Uneven but Overall Frigid
Public data from sample enterprises on July 2 reveals a highly polarized distribution of sales-to-production ratios: the highest reached 70%, the lowest was 0%, with most companies clustering in the 15% to 35% range. Specifically, the ratios were 60%, 20%, 70%, 35%, 30%, 30%, 20%, 0%, 30%, 28%, 15%, 20%, 30%, 20%, 30%, 35%, 0%, 30%, 50%, 20%, 8%, 15%, 20%, 30%, 40% — painting a widespread picture of 'difficulty in shipping goods.'
This ratio level means that more than two-thirds of the day's production failed to translate into actual sales, with inventory pressure rapidly accumulating. For chemical fiber companies reliant on high turnover, this 'production equals inventory' state is unsustainable.
High Cash Flow vs. Low Transactions: The Paradox of Failed Cost Pass-Through
The high cash flow of polyester filament is the core variable in this stalemate. Firm upstream raw material prices (such as PTA and MEG), coupled with energy cost support, have kept production costs high, thereby pushing up quotations. However, downstream weaving, dyeing, and finishing sectors have seen insufficient order recovery, and terminal apparel consumption has not shown clear warming, leaving downstream companies 'unable and unwilling to buy' high-priced raw materials.
This failure of cost pass-through essentially reflects a mismatch in prosperity across different chain segments. Upstream remains strong due to supply-side disturbances (e.g., crude oil volatility, plant maintenance), while downstream lacks bargaining power due to weak demand. The result is a vicious cycle: upstream refuses to lower prices (fearing losses), downstream refuses to take over (fearing inventory), and the market falls into a 'priced but not traded' deadlock.
Direct Impact on Buyers and Foreign Trade Enterprises
For buyers of textile fabrics and garments, the current high quotations for polyester filament contain a 'virtual high' component — because actual transactions are scarce, quotations are more cost-driven than demand-driven. Buyers should be wary of the spread between 'listed prices' and 'actual transaction prices,' avoid being misled by high quotes, and proactively negotiate with suppliers. Also, given that inventory buildup may force upstream to cut prices in mid-to-late July, buyers can moderately slow down order placement and wait for a price correction window.
For foreign trade enterprises, especially those handling fast-fashion export orders, high polyester filament prices directly raise fabric procurement costs and compress export margins. More worryingly, if upstream continues to hold prices firm while downstream orders remain insufficient, some small and medium-sized chemical fiber companies may face cash flow issues, threatening supply chain stability. Foreign trade enterprises should diversify supplier sources and monitor price trends in alternative producing regions like Southeast Asia, preparing multiple backup plans.
Market Outlook: Breaking the Stalemate Requires External Forces
The current 'high cash flow, low transaction' pattern in the polyester filament market is unlikely to resolve itself in the short term. Potential triggers to break the deadlock include:
- A trend decline in crude oil prices, loosening upstream raw material costs;
- A concentrated release of terminal textile and garment orders ahead of the 'golden September and silver October' season, boosting downstream procurement;
- Chemical fiber companies being forced to cut prices due to inventory pressure, triggering an industry-wide price adjustment.
From a timing perspective, late July to early August will be a critical observation period. If the sales-to-production ratio still fails to recover above 50% by then, the industry may face a wave of proactive destocking price cuts. Buyers and foreign trade enterprises should prepare inventory management and price risk hedging strategies in advance.