On July 1, the average sales-to-output ratio of polyester filament yarn sample enterprises fell to 35.8%, down 3 percentage points from the previous trading day. This means for every 100 tons of polyester filament yarn produced, fewer than 36 tons were actually purchased by downstream buyers. Market transactions were sluggish, with downstream users showing strong resistance to current list prices, and almost all purchases limited to essential replenishment.
Signals from the Sales-to-Output Data
According to the latest data from China Customs, the growth rate of textile raw material and product exports slowed significantly in the first half of 2026. As an intermediate product, the sales-to-output ratio of polyester filament yarn is a leading indicator of weaving sector activity. A ratio of 35.8% suggests that weaving mills are actively reducing raw material inventory, adopting a wait-and-see attitude. The distribution of sales data across sample enterprises was highly uneven—ranging from a high of 60% to a low of 0%—reflecting a widening demand divergence among chemical fiber firms of different scales and regions.
Squeeze from Both Costs and Demand
Upstream PTA and MEG prices have been trading in a narrow range recently, offering no clear directional signal. Crude oil markets lack a breakout catalyst, with the Middle East situation remaining volatile but having no substantial impact on supply. Although polyester filament yarn producers have tried to maintain prices, downstream willingness to buy has been extremely low. This stalemate of 'upstream not rising, downstream not buying' essentially reflects the transmission of weak end-demand from apparel and home textiles upstream. National Bureau of Statistics data shows that in May 2026, the industrial value-added of textile and garment enterprises above designated size grew by only 1.2% year-on-year, far below last year's level.
Chain Reactions in Industrial Clusters
Sales-to-output data from major polyester production clusters in Xiaoshan and Shaoxing, Zhejiang, were generally low, with some enterprises reporting 0% for the day. Operating rates in weaving clusters such as Shengze (Jiangsu) and Changle (Fujian) have also declined concurrently. The 'cold' transmission along the chain has spread from the chemical fiber segment to weaving and dyeing. Industry public data shows that in late June, the comprehensive operating rate of water-jet looms in the Jiangsu-Zhejiang region had dropped to below 65%, down about 5 percentage points from May. This indicates that the low sales-to-output ratio of polyester filament yarn is not an isolated event, but a microcosm of a broader contraction in the textile industry chain.
Inventory Cycle Game
Current social inventory of polyester filament yarn is at a moderately high level. If the low sales-to-output ratio persists, inventory will accelerate accumulation. Historical experience suggests that when the ratio stays below 40% for a week, chemical fiber companies are likely to adopt price-cutting destocking strategies. However, the problem is that even with price cuts, downstream purchasing intentions may not improve significantly if end-demand does not recover. This creates a negative feedback loop: price cuts lead to further downstream wait-and-see, leading to more price cuts. Both buyers and factories need to be aware of this risk.