Mid-2026 marks a shift in the polyester chain's logic from cost-driven to demand-validation. A key signal: even with polyester mills offering discounts, downstream weaving mills have shifted from 'grabbing goods' to 'barely glancing'. The June 29 promotion saw a sales rate of just 70%, plummeting to 30% the next day—these figures signal a market moving from price games to confidence games.
Cost Anchor Moves Down, Polyester Unlikely to See 'Crazy Bull' Rally
The crude oil logic has fundamentally changed. After the Strait of Hormuz blockade was lifted, stranded tankers resumed passage, rapidly squeezing out short-term energy crisis premiums. Morgan Stanley revised its oil forecast downward twice in two weeks, now expecting Q3 and Q4 Brent crude to average $75/barrel—nearly $20 lower than the post-Spring Festival spike when oil surged 50%.
For polyester filament, this means the cost 'ceiling' is clearly lowered. The extreme rallies of early March—thousands of yuan per ton in days—are nearly impossible under current crude pricing. While polyester mills still face lagged high-cost raw material inventories, new procurement costs have significantly dropped, making future pricing more dependent on supply-demand dynamics than crude sentiment.
Downstream 'Defensive Rationality': Low Operating Rates, Low Inventories, Low Elasticity
Current weaving mill behavior can be summarized as 'defensive rationality': no orders, no machines. This survival instinct stems from two years of squeezed margins. Fabric price elasticity is extremely poor—breakeven points between inventory and new orders are still in tug-of-war, leaving mills unwilling to leverage.
This 'three lows' (low operating rates, low inventory, low elasticity) directly transmits to the polyester end:
- POY inventory: 30 days
- FDY inventory: 35.7 days
- DTY inventory: 41.8 days
All three are at historically high levels for this period and still accumulating. Polyester mills lack motivation to cut prices further, given their high-cost feedstock; but if downstream continues to hold back, forced 'gradual declines' or 'concentrated volume dumping' becomes more likely.
Industry-wide Low Inventories: H2's Biggest Price Elasticity Trump Card
A noteworthy contrarian variable: after cautious capacity utilization in H1, the entire textile chain's inventory levels are relatively low compared to 2024-2025. This means that once demand shows tangible recovery—even seasonal restocking—the market could quickly develop supply-demand mismatches, restoring fabric price elasticity.
This elasticity was evident in the post-Spring Festival 'New Chinese-style' fabric boom last year—a single hot category was enough to trigger chain-wide restocking. The market is now waiting for delayed summer sun-protection apparel demand (due to heavy domestic rainfall) or pre-'Golden September-Silver October' stocking.
Risk Alert: Tougher Markets Demand Tighter Receivables Focus
May-June is traditionally a 'hardship trough' for textile players—past the Golden March-April, far from Golden September-October. During this vacuum, risks amplify: some firms may resort to below-cost dumping, extended payment terms, or even default to ease cash flow. For buyers and exporters, current price volatility is not the core issue; receivables safety is priority one.