The polyester filament yarn market is showing clear signs of a slowdown. On July 1, the average sales rate among sample enterprises was only 35.8%, down 3 percentage points from the previous trading day, with some companies reporting zero sales. This means for every 100 tons of polyester yarn produced, less than 36 tons actually reached downstream weaving mills, with the rest converted into inventory.
Structural Signals of Demand Contraction
The sales rate is the most direct indicator of real demand in the industry chain. The 35.8% figure is not only below the typical breakeven line of 60% but also marks a recent low. Looking at individual sample data, more than half of the companies reported sales rates below 30%, with only a few reaching 60%-85%. This divergence suggests that while not all companies face the same difficulty, overall demand weakness is a consensus.
Downstream users' 'resistance to high prices' is the main contradiction in the current market. Although polyester yarn manufacturers have adjusted their list prices, actual transaction prices have not shown significant concessions, leading to a stalemate between buyers and sellers. Weaving mills are generally adopting a 'produce-to-order, purchase-as-needed' strategy, with very low willingness to build inventory. Once this 'necessity purchasing' model is established, it will exert continuous pressure on upstream chemical fiber plants' operating rates and inventory management.
Failure of Price Transmission Mechanism
The chemical fiber industry chain usually follows a price transmission path of 'crude oil - PTA - polyester filament yarn - grey fabric - garments'. However, recently, crude oil prices have fluctuated due to the volatile Middle East situation but lack sustained upward momentum. Midstream PTA and polyester yarn prices are swinging between cost support and weak demand, failing to form a clear direction. Downstream weaving and garment sectors, due to a slower-than-expected recovery in end-consumer demand, are completely 'not buying' the raw material price increases.
This transmission failure means that upstream cost increases cannot be smoothly passed downstream, forcing chemical fiber plants to absorb the profit erosion caused by raw material price fluctuations alone. Some companies are reducing operating rates to minimize losses, but this further compresses supply, potentially providing price support—a classic 'dilemma'.
The See-Saw Effect Between Inventory and Operating Rates
The direct consequence of persistently low sales rates is inventory accumulation. At the current sales rate of 35.8%, companies are converting approximately 64% of their daily output into inventory. If this trend continues, social inventory of polyester filament yarn will rise rapidly in the short term, forcing companies to adopt more aggressive production cuts.
In fact, divergence signals are already emerging within the industry. Some large integrated companies, benefiting from their complete industrial chain advantages, can still maintain relatively high operating rates. In contrast, small and medium-sized independent chip spinning companies face greater pressure on capital and inventory, with the possibility of production cuts or even shutdowns increasing. This capacity elimination process is often a typical feature of the industry cycle bottom.