Crude Oil Returns to Pre-Conflict Levels, Thousand-Yuan Gap in Polyester Filament Exposes Deep Supply Chain Contradictions

International crude oil futures briefly fell below $70 per barrel on June 24, returning to pre-Middle East crisis levels. Despite a rebound on June 25 due to geopolitical fluctuations, oil prices hovered around $70 again on June 26. In stark contrast, polyester filament yarn prices remain nearly 1,000 yuan per ton higher than before the conflict. This price gap is not an isolated phenomenon but a concentrated reflection of the tug-of-war between upstream and downstream segments of the polyester supply chain.

Event Background

Industry data shows that on June 24, domestic direct-spun polyester filament capacity utilization stood at 73.81%, up slightly by 0.29 percentage points from the previous week. However, over a longer timeframe, this capacity load is at a three-year low, indicating active production control by polyester plants. The sharp drop in crude oil prices directly dragged down PTA and ethylene glycol futures, stripping polyester filament of its cost support for price increases. On June 24, some polyester plants slightly reduced filament prices by 50-150 yuan per ton, but for downstream weaving mills, such cuts are far from sufficient.

Meanwhile, polyester plants are grappling with high inventory levels. Industry data shows POY factory inventory at 30 days, FDY at 35.7 days, and DTY at 41.8 days. These inventories were produced at high costs, and significant price cuts would turn unrealized losses into realized ones. With low capacity utilization, polyester plants have no urgent need to offload inventory, preferring to gradually reduce prices and slowly sell stock.

Industry Impact

The thousand-yuan gap between polyester filament and crude oil prices essentially reflects a breakdown in the cost transmission mechanism. For weaving mills, the high cash margin on polyester filament suggests significant room for future price declines. Unless they have confirmed orders to fulfill, mills are generally adopting a 'buy only when necessary' strategy—delaying purchases by a month could save hundreds or even thousands of yuan per ton in raw material costs, with no difference in the final product. This wait-and-see attitude further suppresses demand for filament, creating a negative feedback loop.

Weak supply-demand dynamics and sluggish domestic demand are the core root causes of the divergence in the supply chain. Unseasonably cool weather has delayed the peak season for summer products like sun-protective clothing, further weakening end-user purchasing appetite. However, not all is bleak. With the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz shipping channel, global crude oil and commodity trade order is gradually recovering. Multiple overseas economies are accelerating their recovery, which could boost international textile consumption demand. This external growth may partially offset the pressure from weak domestic demand and ease the downward pressure on the polyester filament market.

Practical Recommendations

For Purchasers - Maintain a cautious procurement strategy in the short term, prioritizing orders on hand over inventory buildup; watch for price reduction opportunities as polyester plant inventory pressure mounts. - Closely monitor international oil price trends and Middle East geopolitical dynamics; if crude oil remains low, filament prices are likely to catch down, making delayed procurement cost-effective.

For Export Enterprises - Use the current relatively high polyester filament price window to negotiate long-term order prices with clients, hedging against contract default risks from subsequent raw material price drops. - Actively pursue new demand from overseas market recovery, especially orders from regions like the Middle East and Southeast Asia where trade channels are reopening; consider increasing export stock preparation moderately.