On July 2, the average sales-to-production ratio for sample polyester filament enterprises dropped sharply to 31.7%, down 4.1 percentage points from the previous trading day. This is an alarming signal—when the ratio falls below 40%, it indicates that the market is not following upstream price hikes but actively shrinking procurement volumes.
Behind the Data: Supply-Demand Imbalance
Looking at the specific data from 25 sample enterprises, the distribution is highly uneven: the highest is 70%, the lowest is 0%, and most fall within the 15%-35% range. This 'neither high nor low' distribution suggests that downstream weaving mills are not completely shut down but are making highly selective purchases. Only a few companies with firm orders are still replenishing inventory, while the rest remain on the sidelines.
More notably, the cash flow for polyester filament remains at a historical high. This means upstream polyester plants still have ample profit margins and have not proactively reduced prices despite the sales decline. However, downstream resistance is accumulating—amid a lack of clear recovery in end-use garment orders, high raw material prices are squeezing the profit margins of the weaving sector.
The Price Transmission Mechanism Is Breaking Down
The price transmission chain in the chemical fiber industry typically follows 'crude oil → PTA → polyester → polyester filament → grey fabric → garments.' But currently, crude oil and PTA prices are fluctuating mildly, and the repeated Middle East tensions have failed to ignite upward momentum in crude prices, weakening cost support. Meanwhile, polyester filament, with its high cash flow, has effectively decoupled from cost-based pricing and entered a game of capacity competition.
The result: downstream weaving mills prefer to reduce operating rates rather than bear the inventory risk of high-priced raw materials. Industry public data shows that loom utilization rates in the Jiangsu-Zhejiang region have recently declined slightly, reflecting downstream efforts to pressure upstream through production cuts.
Regional Responses and Divergence
In key consumption areas for polyester filament, such as Shengze, Changxing, and Xiaoshan, trading activity has generally been sluggish. Some small and medium-sized weaving mills have proactively reduced raw material inventory turnover days from the usual 7-10 days to just 3-5 days. This 'zero-inventory' strategy, while increasing the risk of stockouts, has become an effective cost-control measure amid price decline expectations.
In contrast, industrial clusters like Shaoxing and Nantong, which focus on home textiles and apparel fabrics, are more directly affected. Home textile orders have a clear seasonal pattern, and July is traditionally a low season. High raw material prices further suppress the willingness to stock up.
Short-Term Outlook
Historically, when the polyester filament sales-to-production ratio stays below 40% for 1-2 weeks, upstream polyester plants begin to face significant inventory pressure. If the situation extends beyond two weeks, the likelihood of 'promotional price cuts' or 'rebate incentives' increases. Therefore, the current high cash flow is unsustainable, and a price adjustment is expected around mid-July.
However, the adjustment magnitude will be limited. Given the cost support from PTA and MEG, and the polyester plants' determination to protect profits, the downside for polyester filament prices is likely in the range of 200-300 yuan per ton. For downstream users, this presents both a waiting opportunity and a risk—if terminal orders suddenly pick up, missing the low point could lead to higher costs.