The thermometer of the polyester filament yarn market is pointing to freezing point. On July 2, the average sales-to-production ratio of sample enterprises was only 31.7%, down 4.1 percentage points from the previous trading day. This figure means that for every 100 tons of polyester filament yarn produced, nearly 70 tons are stuck in warehouses or channels, failing to convert into actual transactions.
Why the sales rate continues to decline
From the sales data of 25 enterprises, the distribution is extremely uneven: 2 enterprises reported 0%, 8 were below 20%, and most were concentrated around 30%. Only a few reached above 50%, but none exceeded 70%. This 'long-tail downturn' pattern reflects that the purchasing willingness of downstream weaving and texturing links has hit rock bottom.
The core contradiction lies in cash flow. Currently, the cash flow of polyester filament yarn remains high, and factory-side profit margins are still acceptable. However, downstream users' resistance to high-priced raw materials continues to accumulate. The gap between raw material price increases and weak terminal orders creates a scissors effect. Weaving companies prefer to wait and see rather than buy expensive inventory. The cold market atmosphere and sparse actual transactions are intuitive manifestations of this logic.
Transmission mechanism: from cost push to demand resistance
The price transmission of the chemical fiber industry chain usually follows the path of 'crude oil → PTA/ethylene glycol → polyester filament yarn → fabric → clothing.' However, at the current stage, cost-side fluctuations have not been smoothly passed downstream. Crude oil prices, affected by repeated geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, lack upward momentum, leaving the polyester raw material sector without directional guidance. Meanwhile, the terminal apparel consumption market has not seen explosive growth, and overseas order returns are limited, leaving weaving companies with little incentive to replenish inventory.
This means that the high cash flow of polyester filament yarn does not come from demand-driven price increases, but from profit repair after upstream cost reductions. Once downstream resistance intensifies, factories face a dilemma: either cut prices to promote sales and give up profits, or continue to hold prices and let inventory pile up. From the sales data on July 2, the latter is becoming reality.
Practical impact on buyers and foreign trade companies
For fabric and garment buyers, this is a rare window for price negotiation. The expectation of polyester filament yarn price easing is strengthening, but caution is needed as factory inventory pressure may trigger short-term sell-offs. It is recommended that buyers closely monitor the price trends of PTA and ethylene glycol. If raw material prices weaken further, they can moderately delay procurement plans and wait for lower entry points.
Foreign trade companies need to be aware of the overlapping risks of exchange rates and order cycles. Currently, the volatility of the RMB exchange rate has increased, coupled with the uncertainty of polyester filament yarn prices. A combination of forward exchange rate locking and batch procurement strategies is more prudent. For long-term contract customers, consider incorporating price adjustment clauses into contracts to cope with profit erosion caused by large fluctuations in raw material prices.